The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance for tropical development during the next seven days to a tropical wave labeled as Invest 98L. This tropical wave moves fast eastward at 20 to 25 mph. Currently, thunderstorms and some winds are impacting the Windward Islands, and the waves are slowly showing signs of organization.

During the next two days, conditions here are expected to become more favorable for the gradual development of the system. The next name on the list is Melissa.

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Keep in mind that without a well-defined center of circulation, models usually struggle with grasping a reliable track. Once a depression or tropical storm forms, the following set of model runs becomes more reliable.

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The system is expected to lose speed over the Caribbean, and it will likely be the talk of the week, as heavy rains are possible over the Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, as there will be plenty of moisture available in the atmosphere for much of the week. Also, seas will be rough and increasing as the system is likely to develop and likely become stronger.

What is protecting the U.S.?

We continue to experience a parade of cold fronts moving through the nation from west to east, as these fronts occur more frequently than not. They tend to swing any tropical systems out to sea.

It is too soon to know exactly what a potential tropical system would do. Tropical models indicate that the system will develop over the Caribbean. The intensity varies depending on the model. What most models suggest at this point is that the strong cold front, which will be crossing the eastern U.S. next week, will keep this system in the Caribbean and then steer it northward away from the Eastern seaboard next week. Nonetheless, we should continue to monitor the tropics, as any change in the intensity and path of the cold front could alter the eventual track of a potential system.

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