Could Invest 94L become Imelda? Could it threaten Florida?

While the remnants of Gabrielle impact the Azores and Humberto continues to crawl north of the Caribbean, slowly becoming better organized, we shift our attention to Invest 94L. This is the tropical disturbance that has produced numerous showers and thunderstorm activity over Puerto Rico, and on Thursday, left a very wet day across the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

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The system will continue to move slowly over Hispaniola. Still, its center is forecast to merge north of Hispaniola and once over Turks and Caicos and the southern portion of the Bahamas, which is flat territory with little friction, is likely to become Imelda. It should become better organized by Friday, but it can be named as late as Saturday.

Regardless, we are closely monitoring this system, as it can directly impact parts of the Southeast between late Monday and early Tuesday morning. It seems that Imelda will be moving a bit faster toward the north, escaping from Humberto and staying far enough not to allow the Fujiwhara effect to occur. If Imelda picks up speed to the north, it will also lose the push or nudge the incoming front could give it. Therefore, Imelda could come straight to the Carolinas.

As you may notice, numerous factors are at play, and timing, in particular, is crucial for the overall trajectory and impact.

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Could there be direct impacts on Florida?

The chance of direct impacts on the United States is becoming clearer. If Imelda lands in South Carolina, it would be the second storm to directly impact the Carolinas. Although it may not be on many people's minds due to the lull period the Atlantic experienced, Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in North Carolina on July 6 with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.

Once the system develops a well-defined center of circulation and enters the Gulf Stream, future Imelda could gain strength, and we could be referring to a hurricane by early next week. Some models suggest the system could drift slightly more west.

Bottom line is that residents from northeast Florida through the Carolinas need to watch this system closely. Residents and visitors need to pay close attention to the forecast this weekend. We will continue to bring you updates here and fine-tune the forecast. For some, this weekend could mean a preparation weekend. Any watches of warnings will likely start being issued over the weekend, and it will be the time to start acting on those plans you should already have in place. We will bring you another update by Friday evening.
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