AccuWeather has joined the other top hurricane forecasters in slightly lowering its prediction for hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
Since the Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, wave after wave of dust from the Saharan Desert has led to persistent dry air. Add wind shear, which, like it sounds, can slice apart a developing tropical storm or hurricane, and the two have combined to keep this season quiet so far in Florida.
Dan DePodwin, an AccuWeather forecaster, said late last week his agency dropped its prediction for the most named tropical systems from 18 to 16. Of those, AccuWeather now expects six to nine will become hurricanes, down from seven to 10.
“We still expect the same number of major hurricanes, three to five total,” he said. “So it could be up to four more storms that impact the United States so far as we head to the next couple of months.”
Major Hurricane Erin stayed in the Atlantic Ocean in August, peaking at Category 5. Tropical Storm Hurricane Chantal made landfall in South Carolina in July.
DePodwin said AccuWeather will be watching the Gulf and Southwest Florida during the remainder of hurricane season, which statistically peaks now and ends Nov. 30.
“As we head through the second half of September, we think there could be a storm that tries to develop here in the Western Caribbean and move into the Gulf,” he said. “The date’s still up in the air, exactly when that would occur, but that's an area that we're going to be focused on here over the next couple of weeks.”
NOAA lowered its forecast of an above-normal season from 60% before the season to 50% in August. The federal meteorological agency also lowered its range for named storms from between 13 and 19, inclusive, to 13 and 18, and hurricanes from between six and 10, inclusive, to five and nine. Major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 or greater dropped from between three and five, inclusive, to between two and five.
In July, Colorado State University reduced its forecast from 17 to 16 named storms, nine to eight hurricanes, and from four to three major hurricanes.
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