The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is closing in on a record for doing nothing at all.

Five tropical storms have formed since June, and not one of them has reached hurricane strength. No hurricane is forecast to form between now and September 11 (Friday).

September 11 is the latest date on record, going back to the arrival of weather satellites, when a storm has first strengthened into a hurricane in the Atlantic. Sharing that record is Hurricane Humberto in 2013 and Hurricane Gustav in 2002, though some records put Gustav a few hours into the next morning.

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Megan Borowski, of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, sees no tropical development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.

“It’s not entirely surprising, right, because we have El Nino, which developed and it's potentially the strongest El Nino on record,” she said. “And what that phenomenon does is increases vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. And the more windshear we have, the less likely we are to have tropical cyclones.”

The El Nino, which typically causes a wetter winter over Florida, is expected to build into the strongest one ever, but perhaps not until the start of 2027.

That would leave wind shear in place to continue to lessen the chances of a hurricane, but it does not guarantee one or more hurricanes will not form during the three months left in the season.

Borowski says the distinctive weather threat this year may very well be what happens after El Nino strengthens early next year.

“El Nino can actually increase the chance that we'll have strong cold fronts move through the state and we could have squall line thunderstorms that could increase our chance for damaging winds and for tornadoes,” she said. “We're not in the clear once hurricane season concludes.”

The last time a hurricane did not form in the Atlantic was in 1914.

Environmental reporting for WGCU is funded in part by VoLo Foundation, a nonprofit with a mission to accelerate change and global impact by supporting science-based climate solutions, enhancing education, and improving health.

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