Researchers at the Colorado State University have issued their newest 2026 hurricane season predictions. They now predict a well-below average number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year.

This update reflects a downward trend in expected storm activity. In April, their outlook predicted 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5). Now, those numbers have dropped to 9, 4, and 1, respectively.

In addition, CSU says that the probability of a major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the continental United States coastline this season is 17%. This percentage is much lower than the average chance of 43% (1880 to 2020).

The primary factor behind the now well-below-average season is the increased vertical wind shear expected for the next few months caused by a strong El Niño. The stronger wind shear breaks apart potential formation which lowers tropical storm chances.

Although the storm predictions have decreased, it is still essential to be hurricane-ready. A single storm could still cause devastating impacts if preparations are not in place. This is a reminder to have a hurricane kit ready to go regardless.

A day earlier, the private meteorological firm AccuWeather slightly reduced the range of named storms it predicted to develop in the Atlantic basin.

“Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages,” Colorado State University posted on Wednesday. “We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”

Vertical wind shear usually helps weaken or disrupt storms.

"El Niño conditions have always been the driver for why we're expecting numbers near or below the historical average this year," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. "The stronger the El Niño gets, the fewer named storms we're likely to get. Back in 2015, we had a strong El Niño and got 11 named storms. I think that is the sweet spot again this year."

An average storm season has 14 to 15 named storms, with seven reaching hurricane strength.

AccuWeather, which initially forecast between 11 and 16 named storms, now predicts the formation of eight to 14 named storms for the season. Unchanged is the forecast of four to seven hurricanes, with two to four becoming major systems. AccuWeather also forecasts three to five having a direct impact on the U.S.

“The northern and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and the northeastern Caribbean remain higher-than-average risk areas, where storms can develop rapidly,” a release from AccuWeather stated.

With a caveat added, the Colorado State University release noted there is a “below-average probability” for a major hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. coastline before adding that “coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”

The school’s forecast now sits at 9 named storms, down from 13 when the initial projections were released in April and 11 when updated in June.

Also, the July forecast has four storms reaching hurricane strength, with winds at or above 74 mph, instead of six as in the pre-season outlook and five when the numbers were revised in June.

The ocean and gulf waters are expected to be active with named storms for a total of 35 days, down from 45 days in the June forecast. A typical year has 69.4 days of storm activity.

Meanwhile, the number of storms reaching major strength --- Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with sustained winds of 111-mph or greater --- was put at one, down from two in the prior forecasts.

As of Wednesday, the only named storm to arise was Tropical Storm Arthur, which brought flash flooding and tornadoes as it made landfall June 18 near Galveston, Texas.

In 2025, the Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four reaching Category 3 --- winds of 111 mph to 130 mph, and storm surge of 9 feet to 12 feet above normal tide.

None of the 2025 storms, though, made a direct landfall in Florida or the U.S.

From 2022 to 2024, Florida took direct hits from six hurricanes, including four that were Category 3 or stronger.