Pre-season predictions on the number of hurricanes that will make landfall in Florida this year are certain to differ among the leading tropical storm forecasters, figures that get refined and reissued as the season unfolds.
One thing that will now be a constant is the National Hurricane Center’s addition of more watches and warnings on its familiar “cone of uncertainty,” which has been used for more than two decades. It's a teardrop-shaped offering of the most educated guesses available about the direction of a hurricane over its next few days.
The addition of colored areas depicting tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings has been used during the last two years and has proven popular.
“User feedback showed strong support for the addition of inland watches and warnings,” the NHC wrote online. “Recommendations from social science research suggest that the addition of inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic helps communicate wind risk during tropical cyclone events while not overcomplicating the graphic with too many data layers.”
The new graphic will be shown throughout hurricane season, which starts on June 1 and ends on November 30. However, tropical systems have formed in every month.
Hurricane season is the next best chance to satiate the worst drought in Florida in 25 years. Last year ended with the greater Fort Myers area more than a foot short in rainfall, which has left the region with parched soil, water-use restrictions, and outdoor burn bans. due ri
AccuWeather is the only major hurricane forecaster to issue predictions for this season so far.
AccuWeather is forecasting fewer tropical storms than in recent years, in large part due to wind shear arriving with an El Niño expected later in the season.
At the same time, they worry that record-warm Gulf waters may fuel hurricanes strong enough to overpower that wind shear, as well as foster rapid intensification close to Florida's Gulf Coast during the second half of the season boot.
Colorado State University will issue its initial forecast on April 9. The National Hurricane Center’s predictions are scheduled for May 15. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration usually waits until mid-May.
AccuWeather is forecasting fewer tropical storms than in recent years, in large part due to wind shear arriving with an El Niño expected later in the season.
The private, Pennsylvania-based weather channel is calling for a below-average season, with 11 to 16 named storms and, of those, between four and seven will become hurricanes. Two to four of those will reach major hurricane status with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
At the same time, they worry that record-warm Gulf waters may fuel hurricanes so strong the weather systems can overpower that wind shear, as well as foster rapid intensification close to Florida's Gulf Coast.
Environmental reporting for WGCU is funded in part by VoLo Foundation, a nonprofit with a mission to accelerate change and global impact by supporting science-based climate solutions, enhancing education, and improving health.
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