The first major hurricane forecasters to issue their outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season present a less-active season than normal, but note that rising ocean temperatures could make the hurricanes that occur as dangerous as any.
AccuWeather, the State College, Pennsylvania-based cable weather channel, is forecasting 11 to 16 named storms and, of those, between four and seven will become hurricanes. Two to four of those will reach major hurricane status with sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.
AccuWeather is forecasting fewer tropical storms than in recent years, in large part due to wind shear arriving with an El Niño expected later in the season. At the same time, they worry that record-warm Gulf waters may fuel hurricanes strong enough to overpower that wind shear, as well as foster rapid intensification close to Florida's Gulf coast.
Alex DaSilva, an AccuWeather hurricane expert, said residents living in WGCU’s northern broadcast region need to pay attention to their forecast.
“WGCU viewers are going to want to take this hurricane season very seriously,” he said. “North of the Punta Gorda area, we think that there is an above-average risk this upcoming season of significant impacts this hurricane season."
From the Punta Gorda area south, DaSilva forecasts a lesser chance of big impacts, but with the typical caveats: Punta Gorda is no more of a magical dividing zone than is the black line in the middle of the National Hurricane Center cone of uncertainty a guarantee of the exact path of the storm.
“Little wobbles can make all the difference in the eventual impacts that you see," he said. "Florida always has a pretty high chance of seeing tropical impacts in any given year.”
A hurricane-busting El Niño is forecast to hold overall tropical activity to near or below historical averages, especially during the September peak and continuing through the season's official end Nov. 30. El Niño causes wind shear — second only to a tall mountain as a hurricane killer.
The 2026 season is forecast to fall below the 10-year average for both total storms and hurricanes, even if storm counts reach the higher end of AccuWeather's range.
El Niño can form when the Pacific Ocean warms beyond normal levels, disrupting weather patterns worldwide. AccuWeather said there is a 15 percent chance it will strengthen into a Super El Niño during the second half of the season.
There ends the good news.
The Gulf is loaded with hurricane fuel.
The energy trapped in oceans as heat is the key ingredient in the mix that allows areas of disturbed weather to form into hurricanes. The warmer the water the worse they can get. And Gulf surface temperatures have warmed at roughly twice the rate of global ocean waters since 1970.
The Gulf has measured 2-to-5 degrees warmer in recent years than summers in the past, heat that extends down hundreds of feet.
That amount of energy packed into Gulf waters can not only create big hurricanes strong enough to resist wind shear, it also encourages rapid intensification like that seen by Hurricane Milton two years ago.
A tropical storm one day, Hurricane Milton exploded into a Category 5 in just over 24 hours, and its winds jumped from 80 mph to 175 mph in about 18 hours — the fastest intensification from Category 1 to Category 5 ever recorded in the Gulf.
DaSilva said past seasons similar to the one forecast for this year not only carry a higher risk of rapid intensification, but the ramp-up in a storm's fury occurs closer to both coasts of Florida. That leaves people less time to evacuate.
Tropical storms forming before June are more likely because of the exceptionally warm waters, too.
On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared with 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.
Of course, it only takes one Hurricane Ian, or Charley, to leave a serious mark across Southwest Florida.
Officially, hurricane season starts June 1 and ends November 30, but tropical storms have happened in every month of the year.
“There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption, and heartache,” DaSilva said. “Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up.”
Environmental reporting for WGCU is funded in part by VoLo Foundation, a nonprofit with a mission to accelerate change and global impact by supporting science-based climate solutions, enhancing education, and improving health.
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