On October 8, the Florida Department of Health will hold a meeting in Orlando to discuss whether to eliminate a mandate that children be vaccinated before attending school or daycare. A new study shows that eliminating the vaccine mandates could result in a massive, nationwide measles epidemic.
Researchers from the University of Maryland heard last fall that Florida was considering doing away with the mandatory measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines in schools. They created a model to see what the outcome would be if the state legislature went through with this. Their study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, predicted that the policy change could bring about the largest measles epidemic in nearly 500 years.
Lead researcher Alice Overson, a Ph.D. candidate in applied mathematics, said that she learned that 16 to 18 percent of Florida parents are unsure that the measles vaccine is safe for their children.
“So in the event that all of those parents would not vaccinate their children, then we would be looking at vaccination rates for young children as low as 82%, which is well below the herd immunity threshold needed to stop outbreaks from occurring,” Overson said.
Herd immunity, where even the unvaccinated are protected from infection, typically takes place at a 95 percent vaccination rate.
She also found that vaccinating a child has three times the impact on lowering disease transmission than does vaccinating an adult.
She went on to explain how measles outbreaks are bound to be very dangerous.
“And while measles isn't the most deadly disease, it is the most contagious disease on record. So, when you start to get those high case numbers, you're going to see deaths and you're going to see pediatric deaths,” Overson said.
Overson added that she hopes that healthcare experts can communicate with parents in a kind and nonjudgemental way in explaining that the vaccines are safe and effective.
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