We are expecting a non-tropical system to develop to our southeast and track toward Florida this weekend. It’s an upper-level low that normally would not produce a surface-based low pressure system in the open waters outside of hurricane season. However, conditions are still climatologically favorable with very warm waters, so organization into a subtropical or tropical system is possible early to mid-next week. The NHC is forecasting a 40% (medium) chance for subtropical/tropical depression formation.
Although substantial development is not expected at this time, this slow-moving feature could bring rainy, squally and windy weather to Florida Monday through late next week. Strong winds may lead to an increased risk for rip currents, rough surf and beach erosion, while several inches of rain could cause local and coastal flooding.
For those Floridians that are still cleaning up and recovering from Ian, these conditions could impact any outdoor activity, so please plan ahead. For instance, tarps on rooftops and piles of debris may get soaked and pushed around. Also, make sure to have the umbrella handy, especially if you're heading to the polls on Tuesday.
There is still some uncertainty with the track and intensity of this system since it’s in the very early stages of evolution. And there is also no need to panic, but please prepare for possibly much windier and wetter weather next week.
Copyright 2022 Storm Center.
