The tropics continue to show signs of life this weekend. First, there's Tropical Storm Barry, which was officially named Sunday at 11 a.m. by the National Hurricane Center, and it made landfall around 8 p.m. Sunday just south of Tampico in northeast Mexico. Heavy rains are expected to continue impacting the region through the beginning of the week, with some areas potentially receiving up to 10 inches of rain.
Although the rest of the Atlantic doesn't have any clusters of storms with potential tropical development, there is an area likely to experience tropical development over the next seven days. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the eastern Gulf and the western Atlantic, around Florida, with a 20% chance of development over the next seven days.
In the short term, this area is unlikely to experience tropical development. However, we can expect an increase in the possibility of showers and thunderstorms due to a low-pressure system in the upper levels of the atmosphere, which will enhance instability in the area between Tuesday and Thursday.
We are closely monitoring a frontal system that will slowly move eastward over the nation. The tail end of this front could leave enough energy behind near Florida, and this is the energy that could ignite a tropical system. The models disagree on this exact point about where tropical development could occur. The American model depicts a very broad, yet undefined, center of circulation.
This wide area of low pressure would form west of Florida over the eastern Gulf. The European model shows a low-pressure system remaining east of Florida, approximately 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral.
These two models represent two very different scenarios; they could produce opposite results regarding the weather for the holiday weekend in Florida.
If the American model verifies and a storm develops over the Gulf, there could be increased rainfall activity for the Florida peninsula during the holiday weekend. If the European model is confirmed, conditions are likely to remain drier than normal for the July 4th weekend.
We must continue to monitor the progress of the frontal system, which will inject and deliver sufficient energy near Florida. At this point, it is impossible to know precisely where, and if, a storm could form.
Copyright 2025 Storm Center