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New poll suggests Florida could be politically competitive in 2026 election

A sign with a big red arrow hold white text that reads "VOTE."
Carl Lisciandrello
/
WUSF
The 2026 midterm general election will be held on Nov. 3.

Could Florida be back in play? A new poll points to tighter 2026 races, with several statewide contests close.

A new poll finds Florida may be politically competitive in the November election.

More than 1,800 Floridians were recently surveyed, and Christian Ulvert from EDGE Communications said the results are good news for Democrats.

“What we're seeing in Florida is not unlike what we're seeing across the country,” Ulvert said. “The environment is shifting in real time, and Democrats are clearly energized and galvanized."

His firm and another behind the poll, MDW Communications, are both Democratic-aligned.

Republicans have been largely dominant in recent state election cycles. Evan Power, the chair of the Republican Party of Florida, said it's all just noise and believes Florida will continue to shift redder.

But, when asked whether they’d rather elect a Democrat or Republican to Congress, voters slightly favored Democrats in the poll.

It also indicated statewide contests could be really close, like for governor and U.S. senator, with the leading Democratic candidate for attorney general even holding a lead over the current officeholder, James Uthmeier. But a chunk of voters said they were still undecided.

The poll comes after Democrats flipped two state legislative races in recent special elections.

Democrats say President Donald Trump’s low polling numbers and affordability concerns give Democrats a unique opportunity to pick up seats.

“The survey shows a perfect storm of rising costs, unpopular foreign policy, and divisive immigration policy dragging down Trump’s approval and the GOP brand writ large in Florida,” reads the report on the poll findings.

“Critically, Democrats hold a clear advantage among NPA voters,” the report notes.

If you have any questions about state government or the legislative process, you can ask the Your Florida team by clicking here.

This story was produced by WUSF as part of a statewide journalism initiative funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

Tallahassee can feel far away — especially for anyone who’s driven on a congested Florida interstate. But for me, it’s home.
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