No matter where you sit on Amendment 3, the change in property tax in Florida, it’s about housing affordability. But whether or not it would make housing more affordable in the long run versus short-term is a matter of debate. So are the implications for the municipalities who depend on those dollars.

And overall affordability — in goods and services, in general, in life — is also at stake.

If Amendment 3 were to get 60 percent or more of the vote on Nov. 3, it would change the Florida Constitution and the amount homeowners with homestead exemptions pay in 2027, again in 2028 and beyond.

It would raise the homestead exemption — which has not been raised for nearly 20 years — for non-school property taxes from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 (adjusted for inflation after that), for Florida residents who own their homes as primary residences as of December 31, 2026. It also would cut the annual assessment growth cap for non-homesteaded properties from 10 percent to 5 percent.

Kiplinger’s — the American publisher of business forecasts, economic news, and personal finance advice — offers this example:

A homesteaded homeowner with a residence worth $400,000 in taxable value pays .8% to 1% in property tax, depending on the county millage rate. That means the homeowner pays about $3,200 to $4,000 in property tax.

About 40% to 50% of that amount goes to public schools, and that would not change.

The other half, however, funds local services such as police and fire departments, road maintenance and transportation infrastructure, public parks and recreational facilities, libraries and community programs.

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People saying this would “defund the police” are at least partially correct.

That has law enforcement people like Charlotte County Sheriff Bill Prummell very concerned. "More than 99% of the Sheriff’s Office budget is funded through ad valorem, or property, taxes," he said in a lengthy memo released to the public. "Those funds support the deputies who respond when you call 911, the detectives who investigate crimes, the corrections personnel who operate our jail, and the many other essential services required to keep our community safe.

"Now, some have suggested that government simply needs to tighten its belt. I agree that government has an obligation to spend responsibly, and I welcome that scrutiny. But there is an important difference between eliminating unnecessary spending and eliminating essential services."

With such consequences at stake, how much would the average homeowner save in taxes?

An online estimator that runs on each county’s actual 2025 millage from the Florida Department of Revenue, split into its school and non-school components, alleges that a Lee County homeowner with a dwelling that has a taxable value of $400,000 would save $1,736 in 2028. Check your county on one calculator at https://atlantictitlefirm.com/florida-amendment-3-property-tax-calculator.

According to the Florida Policy Institute, state economists predict that Amendment 3 would reduce local revenue by nearly $12 billion on a recurring basis. In Lee County, that loss would amount to about $449,400,000, the FPI asserts. In Collier County, the loss would be $190,800,000; in Charlotte, $127,500,000. More information is available by county at floridapolicy.org.

But without that property tax money that funds police, fire, libraries and other services, municipalities have two choices: Make cuts to those services or raise money another way.

While the amendment may bring immediate relief to homeowners — in particular, full-time Florida residents — the implications down the road could mean replacing that former revenue some other way and/or a reduction in services, according to FGCU Professor Shelton Weeks, who has commented widely on the subject, including on WGCU’s prime-time television program, “Southwest Florida in Focus.”

The only group to come out in support of the ballot measure is Florida Realtors, whose statements address home affordability gaps but not any expected shortfall in services.

The board cites the 2026 State of Homebuying Report, in which mortgage services provider ServiceLink found that 77% of respondents spent more than originally planned on their current home. Twenty-nine percent spent a larger down payment than they wanted to. Property tax relief would seem to be a salve on that problem, according to Realtors.

But again, how to make up that money is not clear in the amendment or in municipal leaders' minds.

Florida has long prided itself — and attracted higher income homeowners — on having no income tax, so the institution of one to make up that money is unlikely.

Passage of Amendment 3 could shift the tax burden to properties not homesteaded, an increase that would very likely be passed on to business and retail establishments and also renters, a population that may already be suffering from housing unaffordability. Municipalities with mostly residential properties and without many businesses may suffer the most without cuts to services.

It could mean higher non-ad valorem taxes, for things like garbage service.

There are other provisions to the amendment, including directing counties and municipalities to use property tax revenue solely for public safety, schools, infrastructure, natural resources, debt payments, employee retirement benefits and government operations and administration.

It would also require the state Legislature to create a process that counties and municipalities use to increase the homestead exemption further and up to the full assessed value of the home.

For homesteaded property owners, it all could come down to pay now or pay later.

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