Chances of a short-lived tropical storm forming have increased for a trough of low pressure over northeastern Mexico that is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday.

If it forms, the storm would be Arthur, the first named storm of the season.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and coastal flooding are possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.

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