As expected, El Niño is rapidly strengthening and NOAA has given it a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong this fall and winter.
In addition, the administration gives the global weather system a good chance of becoming the strongest El Nino in recorded history.
A very strong El Niño can shift Florida toward wetter winter conditions, which could knock back the drought that has had a grip on South Florida since early 2025, and ease the wildfire threat.
In the Atlantic basin, an El Niño usually increases wind shear, which can disrupt developing tropical storms and hurricanes. Since hurricane recordkeeping began in the 1800s, years with El Niños produced the fewest tropical systems.
But NOAA points out its guidance does not rule out a damaging hurricane or continued drought.
In fact, NOAA specifies even an El Niño of this magnitude does not guarantee how much rain will fall, where it will fall, or whether it will be enough to end the drought.
“What makes this El Niño event so unusual is that it's expected to be so strong that there's nothing really to compare it to. There's no analogies in the meteorological world,” Andrew Wulfeck, a meteorologist with the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, said. “We don't have that historical background in terms of how strong this event is.
“Maybe a strong El Niño event is completely opposite of the previous stronger El Niño events,” he said. “We don't know how it'll exactly play out.”
Wulfeck is the author of numerous articles on the El Niño for Florida’s public radio stations including WGCU.
“With the (NOAA) update on the El Nino, there's both good and bad news,” he said. “The good news is that there could be potential long-term precipitation, long-term drought relief. The bad news is, in the shorter term, there could be a dry stretch.”
A drought has blanketed the state, especially South Florida, since early last year. Wildfire has consumed three times more acreage by the end of August than blazes do in an entire average year.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center also forecasts that a strengthening El Niño in Florida may do this, but it also may not do that.
“Seasonable wetness favors a gradual reduction in drought coverage, but the potential for reduced Atlantic tropical cyclone activity may make drought slower to ease across portions of the region,” forecasters wrote in their seasonal drought update covering now through November.
“Daily sea breeze convection across Florida may also not be sufficient to completely remove drought conditions that were very intense at the onset of the summer rainy season.”
Environmental reporting for WGCU is funded in part by VoLo Foundation, a nonprofit with a mission to accelerate change and global impact by supporting science-based climate solutions, enhancing education, and improving health.
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