Republican candidates in the District 19 Congressional race are spending millions of dollars for television ads, mailers and online promotion, and most of that money is coming from their own pockets.
The 10 candidates have loaned themselves more than $9.5 million, with Jim Oberweis leading the way with $4.9 million in loans as of June 30, the last reporting date.
The winner of the August 18 primary is all but assured of winning the November 3 general election against the Democratic candidate, either Victor Arias, Robert Neeld or Howard Sapp. No Democrat ever has been elected to the House seat in Republican-dominated Southwest Florida, which takes most of the Lee and Collier County coasts.
Candidates lending themselves money isn’t unusual, said Bethany Conrad, an assistant professor of political science at Florida Gulf Coast University. The loans are important because no big donors have jumped into the race to back any candidates.
The candidates raised about $2.9 million in individual donations, with Catalina Lauf, who loaned herself no money, raising the most, $1.4 million, through June 30.
“It’s a little bit interesting because we are less than a month out from the primary, so we would expect that people start picking their candidate by this point,” Conrad said.
There have been few public polls. The independent Victory Insights poll, surveyed between June 21-23, showed that Jim Schwartzel led Jim Oberweis 13 percent to 12 percent. No other candidate received double digit support. Fifty-four percent of those questioned were undecided.
An internal poll done by Action Solutions for candidate Ola Hawatmeh showed her leading with 13 percent of those polled. Schwartzel finished second at 10 percent.
If the predictions market Kalshi is any indication, 40 percent of the bets are on Schwartzel winning.
Conrad suggested that part of the reason people haven’t solidified their pick this late in the campaign is because of the Donald Trump effect
“People are waiting on either Trump’s endorsement or someone like Byron Donalds’ endorsement to kind of figure out where they are going to throw their support,” she said.
President Trump has given no indication that he will endorse a candidate. The website Politico reported that a member of the president’s political operation who was not authorized to speak publicly, said Trump could make some endorsements but gave no timetable. He’s only endorsed one Florida congressional candidate, Sydney Gruters, in District 16.
Donalds’ media representative didn’t return an email asking if he would endorse.
Candidates might not get a Trump endorsement, but they are making sure voters know they endorse the president. All the serious candidates splash pictures of themselves with Trump in their campaign ads and on their mailers.
Former U.S. Rep. Chris Collins, who the president pardoned after he pleaded guilty to insider trading, touts that he was the first in Congress to back Trump in 2015. Lauf touts her experience working in the Trump administration. Schwartzel, whose initial TV ads emphasized being born and raised in Southwest Florida, made sure voters know he stands with the President 100 percent.
“It’s not really surprising that Republican candidates in all these different districts are trying to attach themselves to that Trump effect because he is very popular, and in a lot of ways, even if he hasn’t inserted himself in these races by endorsing a candidate. … He inserts himself in a way by kind of setting the ideological standard for the candidates,” Conrad said.
Voters look at those standards and look for the candidate who will meet those standards, she said.
Most of the top-tier candidates are like so many of Southwest Florida’s population, they are newcomers. Oberweis has owned a home in Bonita Springs for 16 years, but he became a full-time Florida resident around 2020. He’s run for office twice before, in Illinois. He almost won a Senate seat, and he lost a House race. Ironically, one of his opponents in the House primary was Lauf, who now lives in Bonita Springs. She registered to vote in Florida in 2024.
Hawatmeh ran for Congress in New York in 2020. She moved to North Fort Myers in December 2025, according to property records, just before announcing her District 19 candidacy. Collins became a Florida resident in 2019 after resigning from Congress and pleading guilty to insider trading. Madison Cawthorn was 25 when he first was elected to Congress in 2020 in North Carolina. He lost his seat in the 2022 election. He now lives in Cape Coral.
There’s not much that differentiates the candidates on the issues. They speak out against illegal immigration, inflation, improving the economy and protecting Southwest Florida’s environment.
“The biggest thing that probably distinguishes some of them is that some of them have either served in Congress or have run for Congress before and others haven’t,” Conrad said. “And some of them are businessmen and some of them are not. Those are really the only big differences. So, at the end of the day it kind of comes down to which candidate can sell themselves the best to the voters.”
That’s where money helps. Money buys name recognition.
“If you have the money to do a little bit of everything, if you could do the TV ads, and you can do the online ads and the mailers, it’s just getting your name and your face in front of the voters more,” Conrad said. “And that’s something that’s really important in a primary like this one, specifically because there’s not a ton of difference between the candidates.”
Oberweis has the money, and he hasn’t been afraid to spend it. He spent $142,8000 on television ads and $138,000 in online advertising in a single day, according to Federal Election Commission filings. He spent almost $200,000 for TV ads through June 30, according to the filings, and $30,000 in radio ads. The ads helped him score the highest name recognition in the Victory Insight poll released in June.
Schwartzel, who has spent heavily on radio spots, was second with 48 percent, Lauf, who has spent mostly on digital advertising had 38 percent recognition, and Cawthorn, who also spent heavily on digital advertising, was at 34 percent.
Name recognition and money are great, and maybe hint at who will be the winner, but ultimately voter turnout is what wins elections, Conrad said.
“I think it definitely gives hints as to maybe which candidate people are a bit more confident or a little bit more excited about, but at the end of the day really, it depends on whether people show up and vote for that candidate,” she said.
IMPORTANT DATES
- August 6: Last day to request mail-in ballot
- August 8-15: Early voting
- August 18 – Primary
- Key Election Dates/General Election
- October 5 – Voter registration deadline
- October 22- Last day to request mail-in ballot
- October 19-31 – Early voting
- November 3 – General election
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