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A cold front brings dry air to Florida to start the week

After Isaias made landfall Friday night, bringing torrential rain and significant damage to the western Panhandle, a cold front pushed through the Panhandle and Central Florida on Sunday. It is expected to clear the state by Monday night, allowing much drier air to filter into the region.

The big picture shows a high-pressure system centered over the central Gulf Coast, bringing mainly north winds and ushering in dry air across the peninsula at the beginning of the week. This high-pressure system will continue to slowly migrate eastward, and we expect winds to begin shifting across the entire peninsula by Wednesday. Along the East Coast, winds will return to a mainly easterly direction, and humidity will gradually increase during the second half of the week.

Extended forecast models suggest a stronger cold front could push through the state next weekend. We will keep an eye on it and bring you updates throughout the week. But first, let's focus on this week's initial cold front. We do not expect a significant drop in temperatures across Florida. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above average for this time of year throughout the first half of the week. Let's break down the forecast across Florida.

High pressure will reign over the Southeast and usher in drier air from the north over Florida, lowering humidity and rain chances to start the week.

The Panhandle

No rain is in sight for much of the week across the Panhandle. Temperatures on Sunday were in the low 80s after slightly cooler air and dry conditions settled in. Throughout the rest of the week, temperatures will slowly increase into the mid-80s, putting them one or two degrees above average for this time of year. These warmer temperatures will feel close to the thermometer reading, thanks to dry air filtering in from the north, which will keep humidity levels down. Winds could gust up to 20 mph on Monday, but as the high-pressure system moves east, winds will begin to subside and stay light through much of the week. Lows will remain in the low to mid-60s.

North Florida

After a foggy start on Monday across interior areas of North Florida, the fog will likely clear after 9 a.m. Afternoon temperatures will rise to around 85°F, with winds that could gust up to 20 mph. Skies will remain mostly sunny during the afternoon, with clear conditions continuing through much of the evening and the rest of the week. Lows will range from 63°F to 66°F at least through Thursday morning.

Winds will begin shifting, becoming northeasterly at up to 8 mph by Tuesday. By Wednesday, winds will shift to the east, allowing humidity to gradually increase through the second half of the week.

Central Florida

Similar conditions will prevail across Central Florida. Skies will remain mostly sunny throughout much of the week, with only a very low chance of an isolated thunderstorm. If one does develop, it will most likely occur during the afternoon across interior areas. Overall, the weather will remain mostly calm, with lower humidity levels on Monday and Tuesday as winds blow mainly from the north. High temperatures will stay near average for this time of year, around 86°F for much of the week.

Humidity levels will be comfortable on Monday but will gradually increase through the rest of the week as winds shift. Lows across Central Florida will range between 68°F and 70°F.

By the second half of the week, expect rain chances to increase as more humidity arrives from the east, especially along the Space Coast. The next significant chance of rain for interior and west-central Florida will come with the next cold front, expected late this week or over the weekend.

South Florida

South Florida will be late to the drop-in-humidity party! On Monday, there could still be a chance of a brief, isolated thunderstorm, especially inland, as the front continues through South Florida. Rain chances will remain low, and parts of Southeast Florida will continue their streak of rain-free days. But remember, rain-free weather during king tide season across South Florida doesn't necessarily mean there won't be any flooding.

A coastal flood statement is in effect through Monday morning, and we'll likely issue another round for Tuesday morning. Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible during high tides. King tides are occurring, but we already peaked on Sunday (New Moon). However, several days, at least through the middle of the week, could still see flooding in some areas as the pull decreases.

Remember, king tides occur several times a year when the Moon and Sun's gravitational forces combine to produce exceptionally high tides. These events often occur during new or full moons, especially when the Moon is relatively close to Earth.

King Tide & full moon explainer.
NOAA
King Tide & full moon explainer.

This stronger gravitational pull produces higher-than-normal high tides and lower-than-normal low tides. Unusually high tides can cause flooding, especially in low-lying coastal areas. Floodwater can contain seawater mixed with contaminated water and sewage that backs up through storm drains.

King tide flooding can cause problems along several coastal streets.

This water can damage vehicles and pose health risks because it may contain harmful bacteria and fecal matter. Stay away from flooded roads. Do not attempt to drive through them, and avoid walking through or coming into contact with floodwaters.

Drier air will dominate South Florida mainly on Tuesday. However, humidity will begin to drop by Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid-70s overnight, with a few areas remaining in the upper 70s. Expect mostly sunny skies through most of the week, with high temperatures slightly above average for this time of year, around 90°F.

Humidity levels will gradually increase as the week progresses. By Wednesday, shifting winds will slightly increase rain chances, with a low chance of a brief, isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon. By Thursday, rain chances will increase to 40%. By Friday, rain chances will climb to 60%, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms becoming likely as winds shift and another approaching front helps squeeze more moisture out of the atmosphere as precipitation.

Low chance of a broad low-pressure area developing over the far eastern Atlantic over the next 2 days.

In the tropics.... because we are still in the season

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a small area with a low chance of tropical development in the far eastern Atlantic. If a tropical system does develop, it would be short-lived and likely not impact land.

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Irene Sans is an Emmy-winning, AMS-certified meteorologist (CBM, CDM) with more than 15 years of experience covering severe weather and climate stories across the U.S. and Latin America. A bilingual communicator and digital leader, she has delivered forecasts and science content for TV, radio, social media, and top weather platforms including Weather & Radar, WFTV, Telemundo, and The Weather Company. She has also served as Deputy State Meteorologist for Florida and consulted internationally on tropical forecasting and climate communications.
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