WGCU Weather continues to monitor closely the potential low-pressure system that could develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this area a low chance of development, with a 30% chance of formation within the next 7 days and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours (during the weekend). Although we will likely not have a named system this weekend, expect heavy rounds of rain across parts of North Florida, Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and the Florida Panhandle.

The outlook is becoming clearer for this system, with the potential for it to track northward and remain over the Gulf of Mexico rather than cross North Florida and re-emerge over the Atlantic.

A high-pressure system located over the Atlantic will continue to steer this system and help keep it over the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, an approaching frontal boundary across the Southeast will allow the system to linger over the northeastern Gulf. These two features are the main reasons why we believe this low-pressure system is likely to remain over the Gulf through early next week.

As the incoming trough and the frontal boundary move farther southeast, this low-pressure system is likely to be pulled northward, potentially before it becomes a named system. Regardless of whether it is named within the next two or seven days, this system will bring torrential rainfall to portions of the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend, and the Tampa Bay area. In fact, the axis of heaviest rainfall has shifted farther west, with the highest precipitation totals expected over the Gulf of Mexico. This means the Tampa Bay area is now expected to see higher rainfall totals, especially along the immediate coast and extending into the Big Bend. Parts of the central Florida Panhandle could receive more than 4 inches of rain. As the system moves northward by the middle of next week, expect additional rounds of rain across the Southeast. However, much of the deeper tropical moisture will likely remain concentrated over the Florida Panhandle and the immediate west-central Florida coast.

How much rainfall is expected through next Friday?

Through next Friday, most models are in agreement that 3 to 5 inches of rain could fall from the Punta Gorda area through Tampa Bay, the Big Bend, and portions of the central Florida Panhandle. Keep in mind that if the high-pressure system weakens slightly and shifts farther into the central Atlantic, this system would have a better chance of moving eastward, increasing rain chances across the Florida Peninsula, especially Central and North Florida.

However, if the high-pressure system strengthens, the system could be pushed farther into the central Gulf of Mexico, limiting rainfall across Central and North Florida. Even so, portions of the Florida Panhandle would still likely receive 2 to 4 inches of rain, especially along the Interstate 10 corridor and inland toward Alabama and Georgia.

Temperatures for the weekend

Heat Advisories remain in effect for inland portions of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties. A Heat Advisory is also in effect for Collier County in Southwest Florida.

Heat index values could reach 110° on Friday. Temperatures will remain very hot throughout the weekend across South Florida. Although many locations may remain just below Heat Advisory criteria, the humidity will continue to make conditions feel oppressive all weekend long.

Rain chances across metro Miami-Dade and Broward counties will remain around 30%, mainly during the afternoon hours. Winds will generally come out of the south, with gusts as high as 18 mph during the weekend. Deeper tropical moisture could begin moving into parts of Southwest Florida, especially if showers associated with the developing Gulf system spread inland. As a result, rain chances across Southwest Florida will be higher, around 50% to 60% throughout the weekend. The greatest chance for rain will occur during the afternoon hours. Despite the increased rain chances, temperatures will remain hot, with heat index values reaching 102°.

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Central Florida will also remain hotter than normal. With winds coming from the south-southwest, temperatures will be especially warm along the Space Coast. High temperatures in the greater Orlando area could reach the mid-90s, while areas around Melbourne may see highs between 92° and 96°. We will continue to monitor shower chances. At this time, there is a 30% to 40% chance of showers, especially along the Space Coast. Rain chances across this region will be heavily influenced by any changes in the development and track of the low-pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico.

North Florida is expected to remain soggy while temperatures stay very warm. Rain chances will increase, especially from the Gainesville area through western Jacksonville, where afternoon storm chances will exceed 50% throughout the weekend. Keep in mind that temperatures will remain hot, with heat index values reaching up to 105°.

Across the Florida Panhandle, expect heavy rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially from Saturday night through the beginning of next week. Afternoon temperatures will range from the lower to middle 90s, while overnight lows will remain in the middle to upper 70s.

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