Researchers at the Colorado State University have issued their newest 2026 hurricane season predictions. They now predict a well-below average number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year. This update reflects a downward trend in expected storm activity. In April, their outlook predicted 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5). Now, those numbers have dropped to 9, 4, and 1, respectively.
In addition, CSU says that the probability of a major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the continental United States coastline this season is 17%. This percentage is much lower than the average chance of 43% (1880 to 2020).
The primary factor behind the now well-below-average season is the increased vertical wind shear expected for the next few months caused by a strong El Niño. The stronger wind shear breaks apart potential formation which lowers tropical storm chances.
Although the storm predictions have decreased, it is still essential to be hurricane-ready. A single storm could still cause devastating impacts if preparations are not in place. This is a reminder to have a hurricane kit ready to go regardless.
