The first outlook from Colorado State University for the 2026 hurricane season suggests that the Atlantic basin could be in store for below-average activity, with 13 named storms, six of which are expected to become hurricanes and two reaching major hurricane status.
Forecasters expect the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to provide major clues as to which basins around the world will be active which ones will have suppressed activity.
Across the eastern and central Pacific, weak La Niña conditions are expected to continue to fade, while the emergence of an El Niño pattern looms.
El Niño events are known to increase wind shear across the Atlantic basin, which can disrupt the organization of developing cyclones.
Additionally, water temperatures where the seedings for tropical disturbances begin in the eastern and central Atlantic are not expected to be as warm, potentially impacting the lifespan and intensity of storms.
During an average season, 14 named cyclones form, with seven becoming hurricanes and three reaching major status, so this year's expectations aren't too far off from average, but the outlook represents the quietest forecast since 2019.
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist and lead author of the report, stated. “Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”
The newly released outlook also highlights reduced probabilities of landfalling cyclones along the U.S. coastline, which, if it were to come to fruition, would mark the second year in a row without a major tropical impact.
CSU listed the probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the continental United States at 32%, which is below the long-term average of 43%.
For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability drops to 15%, compared to a historical average of 21%.
While the outlook points to lower odds of landfall, forecasters stress that these numbers do not eliminate the risk that coastal residents face every year.
Even in quieter seasons, a single landfalling hurricane can cause significant damage and destruction.
Typically, the first named storm forms around June 20, with the first hurricane appearing around August 11, but with a more benign season expected, the first formation dates will likely come in behind schedule.
What's new in 2026
Weather watchers will notice a few subtle changes to forecast products during the upcoming hurricane season.
One of the more noticeable advancements involves the forecast cone, which will now include inland Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings, rather than focusing solely on coastal alerts.
Research indicates that including inland alerts on maps helps to better communicate a tropical cyclone's wide-raging risks, which can spread hundreds of miles inland.
When a tropical cyclone forms, its forecast cone will be slightly smaller this year, reflecting improved forecast accuracy during recent seasons.
Additional experimental products are also expected to be unveiled, including a more elliptical forecast cone and new marine-focused graphics - both designed to gauge public interest before potentially becoming permanent forecast features.
The first named cyclone of the season will be Arthur, followed by storms such as Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly.
