Brace yourself Florida, renowned research scientist from the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University Phil Klotzbach is predicting a busier than normal hurricane season.
The Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season is from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Speaking on the final day of the 39th annual Florida Governor's Hurricane Conference in West Palm Beach, Klotzbach predicted there will be 17 named storms, nine of them, he said will become hurricanes. And of those nine, four will be considered major storms of Category 3 or higher.
The predictions are quite close to what actually took place last year, which by all accounts was considered above normal and very busy. In 2024 there were 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major storms. All five hit the Gulf Coast of Florida.
Compared against an extremely busy hurricane season, that’s good news, right?
" There's still a lot of uncertainty here," Klotzbach said Friday during his presentation at the conference. "...But not as busy as what we saw last year. ... So last year was, you know, was still extremely busy."
Klotzbach and Colorado State University have a solid track record for hurricane forecasting particularly for seasonal outlooks. While the forecast been off some years, they tend to be more accurate than other institutions.
He focuses on predicting overall activity level based on historical data, climate models and the importance of sea surface temperatures as well as El Nino like conditions.
He does not predict landfalls, but he can say with certainty there a high probability of Florida being in the cross-hairs this coming season.
"Just because Floridas hit by the most hurricanes on average of any state, obviously, Florida has a lot of coastline too," he said.
Klotzbach’s forecast presentation Friday served as a finale at the conference. He will provided a forecast update on June 11 followed by updates in July and August. Beginning in August he will provide two-week forecasts.
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