TALLAHASSEE --- With another potentially active Atlantic hurricane season on the horizon, Florida is preparing for the possibility the federal government won’t respond like it has in the past.
After the state was hit by three hurricanes in 2024, Gov. Ron DeSantis jokes that Florida is due for a “break.” But he also said the state has the emergency-response infrastructure and financial reserves available in case Florida doesn’t catch a break and the Federal Emergency Management Agency scales back.
“You hear these different things. I know the media is trying to make an issue of FEMA, this or that. Just know, in Florida, our preparations and our immediate response always assumes FEMA wouldn't be there for us,” DeSantis said during an appearance last week in Tampa.
DeSantis has repeatedly called for the federal government to distribute disaster assistance through block grants to states, which could then direct the money.
Meanwhile, questions continue about how the Trump administration will reshape FEMA.
David Merrick, director of Florida State University’s Center for Disaster Risk Policy, said in a conference call with reporters that Florida’s history of dealing with storms makes it better positioned than some other states to respond and recovery.
“The mantra that has been kind of going around the community for the past five to 10 years is that disasters are locally executed, state managed and federally supported,” Merrick said.
Still, it remains to be seen how a potential reduction in federal involvement would play out.
“I think everybody in the field is kind of in that boat right now. We don't know exactly how this is going to shake out. FEMA doesn't know how this is going to shake out at this point,” Merrick said. “So, it's a wait and see. But the responsibility still sits where it always has at the local level and then supported by the state. We'll see where it goes.”
Trump has created a review council for FEMA that is expected to lead to changes in areas such as manpower and funding.
U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a South Florida Democrat who previously served as DeSantis’ emergency management director, warned Congress last week that FEMA has been “decimated in ways we won’t know until it happens.”
“They're not paying vendors. You know what happens when we don't pay vendors? They can't pay subcontractors. They're not going to be ready to perform in hurricane season,” Moskowitz said while appearing before the House Rules Committee. “They fired 30 percent --- or got them to retire --- of the workforce in FEMA, most of the senior people with that experience. You've got regional offices in FEMA now that are half-empty.”
Moskowitz said Trump is correct to say FEMA needs to be reformed. But Moskowitz said FEMA should be moved out from under Department of Homeland Security control to make the agency more efficient. Through Department of Government Efficiency reductions and pauses, Moskowitz said funding has been cut to programs intended to help communities brace for the impacts of disasters.
“What they've done at Homeland is they've taken something that needed help and they broke it further,” Moskowitz said.
“When there's a hurricane that comes in from the Gulf of Mexico or the Gulf of America, and comes right into Louisiana, they're bankrupt. Alabama is bankrupt. Mississippi is bankrupt,” Moskowitz said. “You get a, you know, an F5, F4 tornado in tornado alley, those states go bankrupt without FEMA.”
The consensus among hurricane forecasters is that the Atlantic Ocean, with generally warmer-than-normal water temperatures, is poised for another above-average season. The season will start Sunday and last through Nov. 30.
On Sunday, the meteorology company AccuWeather predicted 13 to 18 storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes.
“Water temperatures across the ocean, as well as in the Gulf and Caribbean, are already well above historical averages, and they will continue to run warm throughout most of the year,” AccuWeather said in a news release. “This will prime storms for explosive development.”
While most forecasts don’t include locations, AccuWeather predicted that three to six of the named systems will affect the U.S.
AccuWeather’s outlook otherwise closely mirrors other forecasts.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration anticipates 13 to 19 named storms with winds topping 39 mph, with six to 10 packing hurricane-strength winds sustained at 74 mph or higher. The agency also forecast three to five major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
Colorado State University researchers, who will update their figures on June 11, have forecast 17 named storms, with nine reaching hurricane status and four becoming major storms.
Last year’s season included 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Three hurricanes hit Florida. Hurricane Debby made landfall in August in Taylor County with 80 mph sustained winds, Hurricane Helene caused damage up the Gulf Coast before landing as a major storm in September in Taylor County, and Hurricane Milton made landfall in October in Sarasota County as a major storm.