Beryl is expected to continue moving across the western Caribbean after it slams Jamaica on Wednesday.

By Friday, the storm could still be a major category hurricane or at the very least a strong category two hurricane as it inches closer to southeast Mexico.

The Yucatán Peninsula should prepare for a category three hurricane asked intensity models continue to underperform.

Although Beryl will be battling dry air and a swath of windshear located over the western Caribbean this is a very powerful system. Jamaica is dealing with a life-threatening storm surge that will continue to affect the tourist island all day Wednesday.

The Caymen Islands are expected to be impacted on Thursday and by Friday the system should be making landfall somewhere along the southeastern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula.

Beryl has been one of the records since before entering the Caribbean.

The storm was quickly named late Friday evening and over the weekend it rapidly intensified to a powerful category 4 hurricane by the start of Monday. Here are some of the records established by Beryl:

• The farthest-east hurricane that has formed in June.
• First ever Category 4 hurricane on record for June.
• Earliest Category 4 hurricane on record for the Atlantic
• Earliest Category 5 hurricane on record for the Atlantic, beating the previous record by two weeks! (Emily 2005).
• Strongest hurricane crossing the Windward Islands.
• The fastest rapid intensification of any hurricane before September 1

The culprit of all is the warm waters we have been warning you about since before the season started. The waters serve as prime fuel for tropical systems to intensify, often to quickly intensify.

Beryl was born behind a deep layer of Saharan dust, there wasn’t much wind shear to prevent this system from developing and there were plenty of hot waters aiding this system’s rapid intensification.

Water temperatures at the time were running around 2.5 C (4.5F) above average. These temperatures are more aligned with mid-September’s average water temperatures over the tropical Atlantic.

What’s next for Beryl?

Beryl slams Jamaica on Wednesday, and the Cayman Islands on Thursday, and by Friday morning it should be along the southeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The official forecast on Wednesday calls for Beryl to emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm, but the water is also plenty warm in the Gulf, so there could be re-strengthening.

In their Wednesday morning bulletin, The National Hurricane Center has Beryl reaching hurricane status again on Saturday as it comes close to the northeastern coast of Mexico on Monday.

What could change?

The long-term track could still change. Residents along the Texas coast need to monitor Beryl closely.

Even if Beryl stays on this early track forecast, we expect Beryl to grow, which would increase the risk for storm surge along the Texas Coast, just as it happened a few weeks ago with Alberto.

Keep in mind that we must see in what conditions Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This is when we will have a better understanding of a potential U.S. direct impact or not.

Regardless South Texas residents should prepare for the period of heavy rains and storm surge. Southeast Texas residents should monitor it closely. There are no threats for Florida from Beryl.
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