Florida’s Legislature is set to consider a new congressional map starting Tuesday in Tallahassee, inserting the state in President Donald Trump’s tit-for-tat effort to maintain Republican control of Congress after November’s elections.
Gov. Ron DeSantis in January instructed the Legislature to reconvene in April for a special session to address redistricting, in lock-step with Trump’s call for red states to redraw maps in favor of Republicans ahead of the upcoming midterms.
States like Texas went through with the plan, leading blue states like California to retaliate with their own maps. In a major development, voters in Virginia this week approved a new map that could award Democrats up to four new seats. That turns up the pressure on DeSantis and Florida legislators to add Republicans.
“If Florida doesn't draw maps and doesn't at least try this, then basically you're back to square one,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida. “You haven't really changed or altered the partisan balance.”
A new map hasn’t yet been made public. But DeSantis’ office, not the Legislature, will be the one to draw it, according to an April memo from Senate President Ben Albritton.
Some analysts predict Republicans will attempt to flip between two and five districts, with the lower end of that spectrum being more likely. The most vulnerable seats, experts say, are held by South Florida and Orlando-area Democrats. But if Republicans are too aggressive in their new map, they risk watering down their own districts, allowing Democrats to win at the polls.
Republicans hold 20 of Florida’s 28 seats, while Democrats hold seven. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, D-Florida, resigned last week from her position after Congress began investigating her for allegedly funneling money from federal disaster aid into her campaign.
Redistricting typically takes place once a decade, after the Census. Florida last redrew its maps in 2022, also under DeSantis’ guidance. Mid-decade redistricting is rare, and to some, unconstitutional.
DeSantis said redistricting this year would help account for Florida’s growing population in the six years since the census. He also said Florida’s redistricting would anticipate a Supreme Court decision considering whether race can be a factor in drawing lines. The nation’s highest court is expected to rule on that case this year.
A spokesperson for DeSantis’s office said he had no further comment before the special session.
But critics of DeSantis’ plan say it amounts to unconstitutional gerrymandering.
Both federal and state law prohibit gerrymandering, or redrawing maps to favor a specific group.
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 bans racial gerrymandering. The law is meant to protect minority districts from being diluted in such a way that would unseat their representatives and to give candidates of color a way more fairly into office.
And, in 2010, Florida voters passed the Fair Districts Amendment to outlaw gerrymandering that favors a political party.
Florida’s most recent maps faced criticism in 2022 for eliminating a predominantly Black district in north Florida and unseating one of the state’s few Black representatives. The state’s highest court upheld the map after legal challenges. Republicans ultimately gained four seats, for 20 out of 28 total.
But redrawing maps could inadvertently put solid Republican seats in jeopardy. Aggressive redistricting could dilute Republican districts to the point that strong Democratic turnout at the election would flip the seat blue.
The sitting president’s party typically underperforms during midterms, said Jewett, the UCF political science professor. Plus, if Democrats flock to the polls in large numbers, it’s possible some Republicans could be unseated.
“Rather than actually gaining seats by mid-decade redistricting, they might actually lose some seats,” Jewett said.
Reports show some Republicans are worried about that outcome. An analysis by a GOP consultant warned that redistricting could turn the “durable” Republican majority into a “fragile” one. Meanwhile, some congressional Republicans, including Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar and Rep. Daniel Webster, have told reporters they’re uncertain that redrawing maps is a good idea.
House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-New York, said Democrats would pursue flipping a slew of Republican seats if Florida went through with redistricting. That includes District 3, held by Rep. Kat Cammack, a Republican of north-central Florida. Cammack won in 2024 with nearly 62% of the total vote.
“Our message to Florida Republicans is F-around and find out,” Jeffries said this week at a news conference.
Florida voters broadly oppose redistricting, too.
In a recent survey of about 2,300 voters registered in Florida, about two-thirds said states should not be allowed to redraw maps mid-decade. Their opinions changed depending on party affiliation.
Fewer Democrats disagreed with mid-decade redistricting when the survey included information about California’s Democrat-favored maps. Meanwhile, more Republicans said mid-decade redistricting should be allowed when they received information about DeSantis’ plan.
Mid-decade redistricting seems to go against the will of the people, Jewett said.
“Representative democracy is supposed to do just that — it's supposed to represent the will of citizens and voters,” Jewett said. “And that really doesn't work very well if the politicians are choosing their own voters rather than letting voters actually choose their own politicians.”
At the special session, legislators will also consider two other bills regarding medical rights and artificial intelligence.
The first would allow K-12 students to opt out of mandated vaccines and would approve over-the-counter use of ivermectin, an anti-parasitic drug that became the center of debate over its efficacy in treating Covid-19. The second establishes an “AI Bill of Rights” regulating the technology’s use in government and with children.
The special session begins Tuesday.
This story was produced by Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications. The reporter can be reached at alissagary@ufl.edu. You can donate to support our students here.
