The most organized Cabo Verde disturbance of the Atlantic hurricane season is slowly making its way westward across the open Atlantic Ocean, but the verdict is still out on what the future holds for the system.
The National Hurricane Center gives Invest 96L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.
If the disturbance becomes a tropical storm, it would earn the name of Dolly. The name has been used to identify storms since the 1950s and was added to the rotation of Atlantic storm names in 1996.
Recent satellite imagery has shown dry air inhibiting some of its organization, with much of the thunderstorm activity concentrated across the southern half of the disturbance.
Invest 96L is currently moving westward, a trajectory that would keep the system over open water for at least the next week.
Computer forecast models show a wide range of possible outcomes, from the disturbance falling apart over the Atlantic to becoming a powerful hurricane that eventually turns northward over the open ocean.
Strong system gets pulled northward
The Global Forecast System (GFS) was one of the first major forecast models to depict significant development from the tropical wave and has consistently shown some of the most aggressive strengthening.
With the GFS solution, the system would become a hurricane as it moves westward across the Atlantic before eventually turning more toward the northwest and north.
Because of its forecast position and strength, a storm following this scenario would miss the Caribbean and venture into the open Atlantic, east of Bermuda.
Larger, vertically stacked cyclones tend to move more poleward, as the steering flows helps systems to gain more latitude and be picked up by passing troughs.
If this scenario unfolds, the United States would avoid direct impacts from the storm, with the system remaining more than 1,000 miles offshore.
Depending on its exact track and intensity, some coastal areas would still experience elevated surf and dangerous rip currents around the Labor Day weekend.
But not all computer models are in agreement with the general GFS solution.
Weak tropical cyclone ventures toward the Lesser Antilles
A more concerning scenario would involve Invest 96L struggling to intensify into a powerful hurricane as it moves westward across the Atlantic.
A weaker tropical cyclone, such as a tropical depression or disorganized tropical storm, would be influenced by lower-level steering currents. That would allow the system to trek farther west, potentially bringing it close to the Lesser Antilles.
Models such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have at times shown a solution that keeps the system farther south and closer to the Caribbean.
A track over or near the northeastern Caribbean islands would also require interests along the U.S. East Coast to monitor the system closely.
Conditions generally become more conducive to tropical cyclone organization near the Bahamas and off the Southeast coast, and anything that impacts the Caribbean would potentially be in line to move into this more favorable environmental area.
It is still too early in the forecast period to determine whether Invest 96L will follow this scenario.
Weak tropical wave brings beneficial rain to Caribbean
The third possibility is that Invest 96L fails to become a significant tropical cyclone and instead remains weak as it continues westward.
A weaker disturbance would be more likely to follow the low-level trade wind flow toward the Caribbean.
This would produce beneficial rainfall for parts of the region, where some areas have been dealing with historic drought conditions.
Strong upper-level winds, courtesy of the strengthening El Niño, would make the environment nearly impossible for the system to organize and strengthen while in the Caribbean Sea.
This has been a recurring issue for several tropical waves during the 2026 hurricane season.
Tropical waves that have failed to develop in the Atlantic basin have actually crossed Central America and developed on the Pacific side, where there have already been 12 named storms and three hurricanes.
Beyond Invest 96L, there are no other areas currently being tracked for tropical development across the Atlantic.
The hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, meaning there is still plenty of time for additional tropical development.
