Florida has been under a wet weather pattern for several days.
First, we've had a stationary front that has brought instability across the north and central region of the state.
Across South Florida, some of this instability from the stationary front has also disrupted standard weather patterns and produced some minor floods across some cities.
There is also a weak tropical wave that has been crossing the state on Saturday and has brought heavy rounds of rain across the Florida Keys and South Florida.
This tropical wave continues to move across Central Florida as the stationary front dissipates. Expect the heaviest showers and thunderstorms to impact Central and North Florida once again on Sunday, increasing the risk for flash floods.
Overall, weather conditions are slowly improving along the Florida Straits.
Lots of weather is happening across the Sunshine State, and not much sunshine for most.☂
— Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) (@FloridaStorms) August 10, 2025
Heavy rounds of rain continue to impact South Florida overnight, but instability will continue to reign on Sunday for many. Flooding risk continues; stay away from flooded roads. pic.twitter.com/drYiLjIlEy
The week ahead
It's back to school for many Florida students, and it will be one with higher-than-average rain and storm chances. Let's start the forecast from south to north.
South Florida
It has been quite wet this weekend. Showers have been more pronounced since late Saturday afternoon and are expected to continue through the rest of the weekend. Overall, higher-than-average chances will continue to be in store at least through Wednesday.
For the second half of the week, we're expecting to go back to the typical summer afternoon pattern where the sea breezes are the ones that drive the thunderstorm activity, mainly inland.
We forecast a high-pressure system that will take over, likely by the end of this work week, which will decrease shower and thunderstorm activity to about a 30% chance in the afternoons. However, this will also allow the temperatures to soar and heat indices that could reach at least 103°F.
Keep that umbrella handy for Monday. There could be afternoon thunderstorms, driven by the instability of a weak trough that will be placed across northern Florida. But there will still be plenty of moisture near the surface and plenty of heat to keep forming downpours and thunderstorms. There could be between one and 2 inches of rain each day, with some isolated areas that could accumulate up to 4 inches. Stay away from flooded roads. If it flooded over the weekend, it is likely to flood again during the first half of the week.
Central Florida
Heavy rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact much of Central Florida. This also includes Southwest Florida, where the instability will continue to be present, increasing the shower and thunderstorm activity throughout all hours of the day. This does not mean that the showers will be consistent all day, but that they could pop up at different times of the day.
The rain and mostly cloudy skies will keep the temperatures slightly below average for this time of year. Expect this trend to continue at least through Wednesday before a high-pressure system builds over the area, decreasing the rain chances but increasing the temperatures just in time to finish off this week.
Rainfall each day will be between one and 2 inches, with some areas, especially across the western half of Central Florida, that could receive between four and 5 inches in isolated areas. Flash flood risk will continue, especially across the west coast of Florida through the Panhandle, through Tuesday morning.
North Florida in the panhandle
Heaviest showers and thunderstorms will be focused along I-10 and the northern portion of Florida. The risk of flash floods will continue at least through Wednesday across these areas. Rainfall through Thursday morning will range between 2 and 3 inches, but some isolated areas may receive over 7 inches of rain. The ground is already well saturated from the recent storms, and this rain will exacerbate any flooding that's already happening. Remember not to drive across flooded roads.
Across this region, we expect the weak low or trough, which was once a tropical wave, to linger by for a little bit longer, at least through Thursday morning. By the end of the week, a high-pressure system will build, and we expect lower rain chances. Still, with more sunshine, the temperatures will return to being above average for this time of year and feeling hotter due to the deep tropical moisture still present.
Copyright 2025 Storm Center