If job creation is your political priority, the upcoming election may be a difficult one for you. President Obama and Mitt Romney have detailed jobs strategies, but they're very different, and Miami-Dade County's top government economist says there should be room for both in the national economy of the next presidential term.
At the worst of the recession, Miami Dade County's unemployment rate reached 12.4%. But exports remained healthy, tourism was good, and there was a federal stimulus program that kept a lot of people at work.
The jobless rate is now 9.2%. But the stimulus is over and our export and tourism markets are shrinking as Europe heads into recession and growth slows in China and Brazil. Florida needs a way to keep creating jobs as its former lifelines grow tenuous. The county's chief economist, Robert Cruz, says stability is required.
“The obvious thing we need is more spending in the economy that leads to more production, more employment, more business investment and more income”, said Cruz.
And that is a very simple outline of President Obama's jobs strategy: Immediate spending and tax incentives to create immediate jobs.
But there's more to economist Cruz's prescription for Miami-Dade County. There's balance. A year or two of Obama's plan followed by an application of the Mitt Romney approach: tax and spending cuts, regulatory reform which are fully explained in the candidate's 59-point jobs program.
Romney promises 12 million new jobs over the next four years. Whatever the new or re-elected president does, says Cruz, he has to do fast.
“You’d need to look at policies that put spending in the hands of individuals and businesses quickly rather than taking a delay. I think it’s a valid criticism that focusing on infrastructure projects, it takes a long time to get these things started”, Cruz said. “The first fiscal stimulus I think it probably took a lot longer than was expected.”
National labor economists say either plan could be successful, depending on local conditions and flexibility. According to county economist Robert Cruz, local labor markets are complicated and unlikely to be affected only by who’s in the White House.
