A strengthening El Niño event centered over the central and eastern Pacific is forecast to become the strongest cycle in modern history, leading to significant weather impacts over the winter months.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives the event around a 70% chance of reaching historic strength during the October-December period.
If realized, it would leave forecasters with an unusual challenge heading into the 2026-27 winter, as there has never been an El Niño event on the scale of the pending episode.
Without a previous similar-strength event, there are no historical analogs for forecasters to look back on for clues about what the upcoming winter could produce.
El Niño events considered to be among the strongest of the modern era occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 and could potentially serve as a comparison.
During these extreme events, the Sunshine State generally experienced temperatures that were around or above normal, with an increased risk of severe weather during the second half of the winter seasons.
This is due to an increase of energy in the subtropical jet and a shift in the overall storm track farther south.
The 1997-98 season remains particularly memorable event, as it produced the deadliest tornado outbreak in the state’s history.
On the night of Feb. 22, 1998, a powerful storm system moved across the Gulf and into Florida, producing at least a dozen tornadoes and resulting in 42 deaths and more than 260 injuries.
The outbreak was especially deadly because it occurred overnight, when many people were asleep and were unaware of the severe weather.
But again, without knowing the potential effects of the most significant El Niño in history, it is difficult to determine whether something similar could happen again.
National Weather Service meteorologists caution that predicting tornado outbreaks based solely on the status of an El Niño is problematic, as many factors play a role.
There is another potential outcome worth considering when looking ahead to Florida's winter.
If the seasonal forecasts for above-average rainfall fail to materialize, Florida could enter the new year with a very different problem.
A dry winter would allow the current drought to expand and worsen, leading to a problematic wildfire season during 2027.
For now, climate models continue to favor a wetter pattern over meteorological winter, but it will remain a situation that needs to be monitored.
