http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrpkcFuU_Qg
An area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean is being monitored for possible tropical development, especially as the system nears the Yucatan Peninsula by week's end. The National Hurricane Center says the disturbance has a medium chance of becoming a Depression or Tropical Storm on Thursday or Friday. Long range forecast information suggests that the possible storm would then enter the Gulf of Mexico and possibly influence the weather in the Southeast U.S. over the weekend.
PRECISION POINTS
- Low chance of development next 48 hours, medium chance Thursday and Friday
- System likely to enter the Gulf of Mexico late Friday
- Influences, including but maybe not limited to heavy rainfall, possible in the Southeast US over the coming weekend
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Several reliable forecast models suggest a closed area of low pressure will form from the aforementioned tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. A few of the model runs have even suggested pressure falls in the Gulf of Mexico indicative of tropical storm development. If a tropical cyclone were to form, an upper-level trough of low pressure would most-likely interfere and keep it weak, but it could also steer it north and maybe even northeast toward the Southeast US over the coming weekend. Confidence in any particular forecast solution this far in advance is still quite low, but residents near the Gulf of Mexico coastline from Texas to Florida should certainly stay informed of future developments.
Regardless of tropical storm formation, much of the state will likely receive some heavy rainfall Friday or Saturday due to the northward surge in tropical moisture. At this time, forecast data suggests that the heaviest rain will fall in the panhandle and across portions of North Florida where this tropical moisture (and possible storm) will interact with a weakening or stalling cold front. While the recent drying trend has likely mitigated a widespread flooding threat, localized flooding would certainly be possible where slow-moving and repeating showers and thunderstorms form.