A broad area of low pressure over eastern Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

Development is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf around midweek, but conditions there are expected to be only marginal for development.

The chances of formation chance through 48 hours are low near 0 percent and only 20 percent through 7 days.

A tropical weather discussion by the National Weather Service forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami is available, here.

A lower-category hurricane can still be deadly, and in Florida, the kind of damage a storm brings often depends on which part of the state is in its path. What threatens the Panhandle is not always the same as what plays out across the peninsula.

As hurricane season continues, remember this: a lower category does not mean lower risk. and in Florida, the kind of hurricane trouble you face depends a lot on which part of the state you call home.

Because hurricane risk can change dramatically from one part of Florida to another, it’s important to know your local evacuation zone before a storm threatens. The state’s Know Your Zone tool, National Storm Surge Risk Maps. and Florida’s Hurricane Safety Program all help break down how risk differs across the state.

The hottest temperatures this weekend will remain focused across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where dozens of temperature records could be broken during both the afternoon and overnight hours.

Across Florida, we are not expecting widespread daytime record-high temperatures. However, record warm low temperatures may be challenged or broken by Monday morning, particularly across the Tampa Bay area and Tallahassee.

According to the National Weather Service HeatRisk Index, the entire Florida Peninsula will face elevated heat risks throughout the weekend. The highest impacts are expected across portions of the Panhandle and North Florida on Saturday, where major heat-related impacts could affect anyone without access to air conditioning, adequate hydration, or frequent cooling breaks.

As we move through the weekend, the most intense heat will continue to impact much of the Florida Peninsula.

By the middle and latter part of next week, areas of Central Florida, Southwest Florida, and portions of Southeast Florida could reach the major heat risk category, indicating significant impacts for heat-sensitive individuals, especially those who do not stay hydrated or take proper precautions. Meanwhile, the Panhandle is expected to remain under a moderate heat risk level during the second half of the week.

We are not expecting a cold front to move through Florida anytime soon. A persistent high-pressure system near the peninsula will continue to block fronts from reaching the state through the weekend and much of next week.

However, increasing moisture combined with a developing trough will support numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Sea breezes from both coasts will help trigger storms during the hottest part of the day.

Temperatures Across Florida This Weekend

On Saturday, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s along the Interstate 10 corridor from Tallahassee to Jacksonville. Gainesville could also reach the mid-90s. When combined with high humidity, heat index values may exceed 100°F.

Central Florida will see temperatures in the low to mid-90s, which is slightly above average for mid-June. Typical highs this time of year are generally in the lower 90s across the Tampa Bay area and Orlando.

South Florida will also remain warm, with highs in the lower 90s throughout the weekend, running slightly above seasonal averages.

It is important to remember that one of the strongest signals of climate change is the rapid increase in overnight temperatures. As a result, low temperatures are expected to remain unusually warm and could approach or break records by Monday morning, especially across the Tampa Bay area.

Temperatures in Tampa may struggle to fall below 80°F on Sunday night. If Tampa International Airport remains at or above 81°F, it would tie or break the record warm low temperature of 81°F set in 2016.

Stay Safe in the Heat

Make sure you stay hydrated throughout the weekend. If you plan to spend time outdoors, be aware that thunderstorms may develop each afternoon, bringing frequent lightning and heavy rain. At the same time, heat and humidity will create dangerous conditions for prolonged outdoor activities.

If you work outdoors, take frequent breaks in shaded or air-conditioned areas and drink water regularly. Do not wait until you feel thirsty, as dehydration may already be occurring. Heat exhaustion and heat stroke can develop quickly in these conditions. While actual temperatures will generally reach the low to mid-90s, humidity will make it feel more like 103°F or higher across much of the peninsula each afternoon.

Please check on vulnerable family members, neighbors, and friends, especially older adults, young children, and individuals taking medications that may increase the risk of dehydration or heat-related illness.

Sea surface temperatures across portions of the equatorial Pacific have warmed enough for forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to declare that an El Niño event is underway.

El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO.

The status of ENSO varies between El Niño, La Niña and a neutral phase, depending on sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

An El Niño is considered to be underway when sea surface temperatures reach at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal over an extended period.

The current event had been widely anticipated by computer forecast models, with some guidance indicating a significant El Niño could develop later this year.

A super El Niño is considered to be underway when water temperatures across the Pacific reach at least 2 °C above average.

The strength and timing of an El Niño can result in widespread impacts across North America, influencing everything from hurricane activity to winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

For Florida, some of the earliest impacts may begin to become noticeable later this summer.

When an El Niño develops during the warm season, drier-than-normal conditions are often favored from August into October.

One contributing factor to the reduced precipitation is decreased tropical activity across the Atlantic basin.

El Niño tends to increase vertical wind shear, which disrupts developing tropical cyclones and limits opportunities for strengthening.

Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University and NOAA have already taken the status of ENSO into account for their annual Atlantic basin tropical season outlooks.

Experts at CSU are expecting a quieter-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are near average but are cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” CSU forecasters stated in their most recent seasonal outlook.

While El Niño’s influence on tropical activity often receives wide attention during the summer and fall, the climate pattern’s influences become even more noticeable later in the year.

Across the Southeast, El Niño historically favors a stronger and more active subtropical jet stream during the winter.

This pattern often results in increased cloud cover, cooler temperatures and more frequent precipitation.

From December through March, precipitation totals across parts of the region can average 30% to 50% above normal during an active El Niño event.

The increased precipitation often leads to an uptick in severe weather reports across the Sunshine State when compared to La Niña years.

A typical El Niño lasts 9 to 12 months, meaning the current episode will likely persist well into 2027 and influence weather patterns around the globe.

As heat waves sweep across Florida, many residents will see higher power bills.

But there are some simple things you can do to keep your cooling bills as low as possible. FPL Spokesperson Bianca Soriano shared some essential tips to do just that:

"Set your thermostat setting on your AC in the range of 75 to 78 for optimal savings and use your cold water setting on your washing machine. Also check your doors and windows for any drafts to avoid any of the cool air escaping. We've got some great programs and rebates available for customers to keep their bills even lower. Visit fpl.com/ways to save."

There are many more tips and ideas to reduce your cooling bill when the temps soar:

• Summer cooling costs can make up to 60% of your energy bill. When home, set your thermostat to a comfortable temperature between 75 and 78 degrees, and up to 82 degrees when you’re away from home. Every degree you raise your thermostat between 75 and 78 degrees you can save you 3-5% on monthly cooling costs. 
• Ceiling fans can make you feel 3 to 4 degrees cooler while using less energy than air conditioning. Set the fan to spin counterclockwise in the summer and turn it off when you leave the room.
• Nearly 30% of unwanted heat enters through your windows. Check for drafts and seal any gaps with caulk or weather stripping to prevent cool air from escaping and warm air from getting in. Additionally, keep blinds or curtains closed during the hottest part of the day.
• Use smaller appliances, like an air fryer, instead of your oven to consume less energy and avoid raising the temperature in your home.
• Using cold water when washing clothes instead of hot water can save up to $160 per year for an average sized household. 

WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

Deep tropical moisture will continue to arrive in Florida, interacting with a warm air mass. In some areas, daytime heating will also contribute to the development of the strongest thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Thursday will be a wet day across most of Florida. Showers have lingered near the coast and just offshore of southeast Florida since the early morning hours. Rainfall totals between 1 and 2 inches have been recorded in just a few hours since sunrise in coastal Miami-Dade, while heavier downpours have also stretched along I-95 through Palm Beach County.

Southwest Florida also woke up to downpours after a very stormy Wednesday afternoon. However, today’s rainfall totals, measured between midnight and 8 a.m., range from 0.25 to 1.25 inches.

More rain is on the way

A pocket of moisture will continue to ignite showers and push them mainly from west to east across South Florida through the latter part of the morning. By the afternoon hours, an impulse of energy will bring additional moisture across the Panhandle. When combined with any sunshine that breaks through, the atmosphere becomes more unstable, allowing strong downpours and thunderstorms to develop. The primary storm movement will be from west to east, but keep in mind that some of these storms will move slowly and could produce heavy rainfall in a short amount of time, leading to localized flooding.

This evening, thunderstorms will likely persist across Central and South Florida, and by then, storms are expected to move from north to south. This is one reason South Florida is more vulnerable to flash flooding: the region is likely to experience multiple rounds of storms, many of which could become intense at different times throughout the day.

The western Panhandle has been soggy for several days. While this has helped improve drought conditions, it also increases the risk of flash flooding because the ground has become compacted, making it more difficult for rainwater to drain properly. The heaviest rainfall during the next three days will likely focus over the eastern portion of the Panhandle. The Jacksonville area, along I-95, could receive between 2 and 4 inches of rain.

Could this rain help the drought?

Many residents have wondered why the drought has not improved despite all this rain. The reality is that this is a severe drought that, for many areas, began during the last rainy season and only worsened throughout the dry season. It takes more than one or two heavy downpours to bring meaningful drought relief. Instead, several rounds of rainfall — preferably steady light-to-moderate rain — are needed to gradually penetrate the compacted ground and provide lasting improvement.

The good news is that Florida is now in the rainy season, and long-range models continue to show a steady stream of moisture that will keep rain chances elevated across the state. We will continue to monitor moisture surges and the flood threat across Florida and provide timely updates.

Saharan dust could suppress rain chances a bit

There is a large plume of Saharan dust traveling over the Caribbean. June is a notable month for dust plumes to arrive in the Americas, and this year doesn’t seem to be any different. For now, models show that the deepest dust layer could arrive in South Florida from Sunday through Tuesday, with another deep layer likely to spread across Florida during the latter part of the week. These plumes can be difficult to model at times, so please stay tuned, as the final location could vary. Nonetheless, if dust moves into your region, you may notice hazy, yellowish skies, lower rain chances, and hotter temperatures.

Florida is parched and in the midst of the most widespread and severe droughts since 2012. It is fueled by persistent high-pressure systems and historic rainfall deficits.

For a state that is near the top for specialty produce, citrus and ornamental plants, this can spell disaster.

That’s why the U.S. Small Business Administration is rolling out low-interest disaster loans to small businesses and private, nonprofit organizations in Florida that have sustained financial losses since the drought began in December.

Counties within WGCU’s airwaves that are eligible to apply are Charlotte; Collier; DeSoto; Glades; Hendry; Highlands; Lee; Okeechobee and Sarasota.

The government is also offering Economic Injury Disaster loans to small businesses, small agricultural cooperatives, nurseries, private-non-profits including faith-based organizations that have suffered financially.

Loans can be up to $2 million with interest rates as low as four percent for small businesses. The rate is even lower at 3.6 percent for private nonprofits.

To apply online visit sba.gov/disaster. Applicants may also call SBA’s Customer Service Center at (800) 659-2955 or email disastercustomerservice@sba.gov for more information on SBA disaster assistance. For people who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.

WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

NOAA forecasters expect atmospheric conditions associated with a developing El Niño to suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the 2026 season, increasing the likelihood of a below-normal year across the basin.

In its initial outlook released Thursday, the agency said there is a 55% chance of a below-normal hurricane season, with only 10% odds of the year finishing with above-normal activity.

Based on calculations involving the expected Accumulated Cyclone Energy, forecasters expect 8 to 14 named storms to form, of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 115 mph.

Typically, during an average year, 12 named storms form, with 7 becoming hurricanes and 3 reaching major hurricane status.

Experts with Colorado State University released their initial outlook in April and came up with similar figures, forecasting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons,” Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist and lead author of the report, previously stated.

Forecasters with both groups said El Niño is expected to play the dominant role in suppressing activity during the peak months of hurricane season from August through October.

In the Atlantic basin, El Niño often increases upper-level winds across the Atlantic's Main Development Region or what commonly referred to as the MDR.

The MDR stretches from the Caribbean through the tropical Atlantic and is where many long-lasting hurricanes typically form.

Despite expectations for a quieter season, officials continue to stress that seasonal outlooks are not landfall forecasts and even El Niño years can still produce devastating impacts.

For instance, the 2004 hurricane season, which featured El Niño conditions, produced 15 named storms, with five cyclones impacting Florida over a six-week time frame.

During an average year across the basin, the first named storm typically does not form until June 20, while the first hurricane usually does not develop until mid-August.

The first tropical storm of the 2026 season will receive the name Arthur, and there are no indications that formation will occur over the next few weeks.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with roughly 97% of all tropical cyclone activity taking place between those dates.

The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is still about two weeks away, but the National Hurricane Center on Friday resumed issuing its Tropical Weather Outlook for the basin.

The daily outlooks show which areas of disturbed weather across the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf have the potential for tropical cyclone development.

Friday's outlook showed no tropical cyclone activity is anticipated over the next seven days, which is typical for mid-May.

The outlook is updated at least four times a day and serves as one of the tools for the public to monitor tropical threats well before they organize into a trackable cyclone.

The NHC uses a color-coded system that identifies the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.

A yellow shaded area indicates a low chance of development, while an orange region signifies a medium probability, ranging from 40% to 60%. A red highlighted area indicates a high likelihood that a tropical cyclone could form.

New during the 2026 season, forecasters will introduce a gray “X” symbol to identify areas with little to no chance of development.

“Today, May 15, marks the first day of routine issuance of the Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2026,” the National Hurricane Center said in its first outlook. “This product describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next seven days.”

Through most of the season, the outlook is updated at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. EDT, except after the switch to standard time in November, when issuance times shift to 1 a.m., 7 a.m., 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. EST.

During an average year, the first named storm typically does not form until June 20, while the first hurricane usually does not develop until mid-August.

During quieter hurricane seasons, tropical cyclone formation can lag well behind those averages.

Early forecasts for the 2026 season suggest activity may trend below normal compared with more active seasons during the last several decades.

Seasonal forecasts are calling for roughly 13 named storms to form, with six of those expected to strengthen into hurricanes, while two could become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 115 mph.

The first tropical storm of the season will receive the name of Arthur.

Forecasters say one of the primary reasons for the anticipated reduction in tropical activity is the expected emergence of El Niño conditions across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The phenomenon influences weather patterns around the globe, including hurricane activity.

Stronger upper-level winds, as well as cooler water temperatures across parts of the basin, make the development of tropical disturbances more difficult.

Some climate models are showing the development of what is known as a “Super El Niño,” which occurs when water temperature anomalies exceed 2 degrees Celsius.

The event would have significant ramifications on world weather patterns, but whether it reaches historic levels during the hurricane season remains to be determined.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking from late August through early October.