The drought proving to have a stranglehold on Southwest Florida since February and barely satiated by the fourth-driest summer rainy season in state history, has returned more muscular than before.
Lee County re-enacted its ban against burning anything outdoors Monday, making it the 20th county in the state to activate such a restriction -- doubling the number with burn bans prior to the short respite the feeble summer showers brought.
In November alone, more than 1.7 million people living in counties along or near Southwest Florida’s Gulf Coast were plunged back into moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, as dry conditions creep south from the epicenter in the Panhandle and worsen.
Nearly the entire Gulf Coast of Florida is drought-stricken, with pockets deemed “extreme” – the driest of drought – in the Tallahassee region extending south to the moderate drought now blanketing nearly all of Southwest Florida.
Drought often precedes wildfire.
“We need to be prepared, especially this season, just because of the drought,” said Jesse Lavendar, a spokesman for the Florida Forest Service’s District 17 that includes Lee County. “People that have experienced wildfires before, knowing the conditions going forward, there has been a heightened level of awareness.”
He said the forest service is always prepared to fight wildland fire, which can happen any month in Florida but is most likely during the late-winter through spring dry season.
The agency has ramped up that preparedness now, due to the reinvigorated drought and the “lackluster precipitation” forecast for early next year. Lavender said forecasts of higher-than-normal temperatures and lower-than normal rainfall heading into wildfire season look to be accurate.
“We're always prepared, but yeah, as far as I think the focus should be on the drought,” Lavender said.
The ingredients for a challenging wildfire season in 2026 are in place, but does that mean it will happen?
“There really is no crystal ball on this.”
Drought precedes wildfire
The drought gripping Southwest Florida started in February and worsened considerably in May, June and July after a heat dome settled in over the area trapping hot air at the surface.
Moisture in the top layers of soil evaporated, high temperature records were set throughout the lower portion of the state, and the drought blossomed into the worst in 20 years.
NOAA reported July in Fort Myers was the 15th driest July on record with 5 inches of rain instead of the normal 9.38 inches.
And then came July 27.
Fort Myers tied its all-time daily high temperature of 97° degrees July 27.
Naples set a single day high of 98 degrees on July 27.
Tampa International Airport reached 100 degrees on July 27, its all-time high since records began in 1890.
The heatwave from May to July set the highest number of daily high-temperature records — 55 — due to the extremes related to the heat dome.
Warmest days do not equate with “all‑time driest year” records, but they clearly place 2025 among the drier years in Southwest Florida.
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Experts are not in agreement as to when the drought will end in large part due to global warming-inspired unpredictability in weather and regional climate patterns, but there is a rough consensus that it won’t be in the short-term.
What is agreed upon is that historical data, like that from the National Interagency Fire Center, shows that during severe drought years, both the frequency and acreage of wildfires increase significantly following drought periods when temperature records are shattered or nearly so.
Drought periods cause vegetation and soil to become extremely dry and more flammable, making wildfires more likely and more intense after a lightning bolt, arson, or when the hot underside of a car rolls over high grass.
Drought is a slow-moving, often large, type of climate phenomenon that takes time to develop and time to fade away with enough rainfall.
Meteorologist Noah Bergren said the current drought created the third-driest conditions during a November statewide, and many places along the Gulf coast are more than a foot of rain below average this year.
Last month was the first time anywhere in Florida - the Tallahassee region – was upgraded to the highest level of dryness during November by the U.S. Drought Monitor.
“This is pretty rare drought for Florida so early in the dry season,” Bergren, with FOX 35 in Orlando, said. “This could cause a very early start to wildfire and brush fire season, and water shortages in early 2026 if no notable rain comes soon state-wide.”
Wildfire necessary
Nearly half of Florida is covered in forests that require fire to thrive.
Naturally ignited wildland blazes, such as lightning striking a tree, burns out dead underbrush, fallen trees, and regenerates the soil to allow for a fresh canvas on the forest floor a freshy canvas.
Sand pine’s seed-filled cones are sealed by a resin that needs wildfire to heat the mastic, which allows the cones to open and drop large amounts of seeds onto freshly burned, competition‑free soil.
The downside to such amazing natural design is that the state’s forests are never far from being ready to burn.
As the state’s population grows, more communities are built aside or within forests – what wildland firefighters call the “wildland urban interface.” Those houses built along or within wooded areas with an affinity for wildfire are always at risk.
“Florida has a year-round fire season with the most active part taking place from April to July,” the Florida Division of Emergency Management wrote in its hazard mitigation plan “The majority of wildfires in Florida (70-80 percent) are caused by humans from arson or escaped debris burning (and) many of these fires occur within one mile of the wildland urban interface.”
The Florida Forest Service and similar agencies have self-help tools online that can help reduce the chances of damage to a home during a catastrophic wildfire. Tips including how to create a “defensible space” around a house in a woodsy area, burning yard waste in a safe manner when allowed, and the merits of prescribed burning.
Details of those and other wildfire stay-safe tactics can be found here.
The Florida Forest Service monitors drought and fire conditions daily across all 67 counties and adjusts its operations accordingly to what local weather conditions produce.
Environmental reporting for WGCU is funded in part by VoLo Foundation, a nonprofit with a mission to accelerate change and global impact by supporting science-based climate solutions, enhancing education, and improving health.
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