Southwest Florida entered 2007 with a rainfall deficit - and despite recent rains, the deficit remains. WGCU's Valerie Alker has more.

On this day 15 years ago, Hurricane Andrew came ashore in southern Miami-Dade County with sustained winds of 165 miles an hour and gusts exceeding 180 miles an hour. Andrew laid the foundation for much of what former Governor Jeb Bush would deal with during his time in office. Doug Phillips reports.

As quiet as things have been so far this hurricane season the National Hurricane Center is only slightly changing its’ forecast for the rest of the year. WGCU’s Luis Hernandez has more.

Public health officials are warning residents and visitors to beware of heat exhaustion as mid day temperatures in Southwest Florida reach the mid 90’s. Four firefighters suffered from heat exhaustion Tuesday while working a house fire in Cape Coral. WGCU’s Valerie Alker has more.

Forecasters say an early season tropical wave moving through the Atlantic is much of a threat. WGCU’s Luis Hernandez has more.

Florida’s Senior United States Senator Democrat Bill Nelson and Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu are urging their senate colleagues to expedite the construction and launch of a new weather satellite.

Nasa’s QuickScat Satellite provides high resolution measurements of sea-level winds which are an important component in hurricane forecasting. But QuickScat, which was supposed to have a five year life span, is now in its 8th year of operation – and could fail at anytime. Senator Nelson says it’s critical that it be replaced.

“if we suddenly lose this by it going on the blink it would lessen our accuracy of our hurricane tracking forecast by about 16 percent – we need every bit of information we can get so when the monster comes we want to know where it’s going to hit so you can get the people out of harms way.”

According to National Hurricane Center Director Bill Proenza, no replacement is planned. Design and construction of a new satellite would take 3 to 4 years and cost up to 400 million dollars. Nelson and Landrieu are asking the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation to schedule a hearing on the importance of weather satellites. They have also introduced a bill to develop a replacement satellite.

Most of the panhandle is under a tornado warning this evening as a massive cold front moves across Florida…and we could see some severe weather here in Southwest Florida too.

The state’s storm prediction center is forecasting a ‘high’ risk of severe weather for northern Florida. That means numerous tornadoes are expected. A ‘moderate’ risk is forecast down to about I-4.

Warning Coordination Meteorologist – Daniel Noah – says while it’s only a quote ‘slight risk’ here in southwest Florida that still means a decent chance for very severe weather.

“Any storms that do develop, the atmosphere is very cold aloft, so the potential for very large hail and damaging downburst winds is there, however the most significant severe weather will remain in Northern Florida.”

To put it in perspective, the February 2nd tornadoes occurred under a “slight risk” forecast. Those tornadoes killed 21 people and caused millions of dollars in damage in Lake, Volusia and Sumter counties.

Noah says it’s rare for such a large region to be under a high risk.

“We don’t get into a high risk from the storm prediction center very often in the state of Florida. And when it does happen it is a big event, it’s significant. We’re talking widespread, prolonged severe weather across the panhandle through Jacksonville overnight.”

Noah says a combination of a warm front over the panhandle and the southern end of that massive cold front are causing the severe weather.

Expect near record warm temperatures this weekend across Southwest Florida – ahead of a cold front meteorologists say will blow through on Monday.

Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Ruskin say there’s a front on its way – and that it’s bringing cold temperatures with it. But don’t get out your sweaters until Tuesday or so. And between now and then, keep your shorts on.

Meteorologist - Jennifer Colson – says the chance the front will stall is slim.

“It really looks like it’s going to move well through the state and actually make it into Cuba and that far south with pretty strong pressure building in behind it. So at this point and time it looks like it’s a pretty good bet. We’ll also probably be getting near record temperatures over the weekend ahead of the front, so the warm weather will continue.”

Southwest Florida saw the 3rd warmest December on record – with average temperatures nearly 4 degrees above normal.

Colson says that’s thanks to the El Nino weather pattern – which typically translates to milder…and wetter…winters. And she says although it will cool off next week, that doesn’t mean an end to this winter’s unseasonably warm weather.

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Last month was one of the warmest on record in Southwest Florida.

Forecasters say the so-called El Nino weather pattern is behind the warm, wet weather. When El Nino is occurring Florida typically sees milder winters, and less active hurricane seasons.

Jennifer Colson is a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Ruskin.

“It was the 3rd warmest December with a temperature of 70.9 degrees. The normal average temperature for December is 66.4 – so it was about 4 degrees above normal.”

Colson says a cool change is on the way, though. A cold front is expected to move through Monday and Monday night. .

She says Southwest Florida should see highs around 70 – and overnight lows in the upper 40’s – starting Tuesday.

Outgoing Director Max Mayfield says he’s enjoyed his 34 years at the National Hurricane Center…and that his replacement is the right man for the job.

Mayfield led the center for 7 years – including the record breaking 2004 and 2005 seasons which included now-famous names like Charley, Katrina and Wilma.

His replacement 62-year-old Bill Proenza has decades of experience in forecasting and hunting hurricanes.

Mayfield says he gave what he describes as his colleague and friend the same advice his predecessor gave him…

“I’ll tell him the same thing Bob Sheets told me when I asked him for any advice. He said keep the emergency management happy and keep the media happy and those are two things that I’ve really tried to do, and I’m sure that my successor will do a good job of that, too.”

Mayfield says good communication is the main ingredient in protecting people against hurricanes. And that advances in technology - not only in forecasting but in communication - have made keeping safe the more than 50 million people who live along the water from Texas to Maine an easier task.

Meanwhile experts are already predicting an active 2007 season.

Famous hurricane prognosticator William Gray has downgraded his forecast for the current hurricane season…again. His new report – the second revision since the season began in June – predicts fewer than average storms, with just 6 hurricanes among 11 named tropical systems. There’ve been 5 hurricanes so far this year. Forecasters agree an unexpected El Nino weather pattern is responsible for the slowdown. National Weather Service meteorologist - Daniel Noah – says Gray makes more predictions than anyone else…

“He does the most of them. We don’t release ours until the first week of hurricane season, and then we only update it once. But the people that use Dr. Gray’s forecast are wide and varied and I’m sure there are some of them out there that want them that often.”

Noah says as soon as this season ends, Gray will immediately begin making predictions for 2007. And despite Gray’s reduced hurricane forecast, Noah says there are still two months left in THIS season.

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Noted storm predictor William Gray is calling for a slow finish to this year’s relatively quiet hurricane season. It’s the second time William Gray has reduced his forecast since the season began June 1st. He’s now predicting a total of 6 hurricanes, and 11 named storms. And with only 2 months left in the season – there have already been 5 hurricanes. Ruskin-based National Weather Service meteorologist Daniel Noah says the weather pattern called El Nino arrived unexpectedly this year, and that’s the reason for the slowdown.

“El Nino developed very fast – we were in a La Nina, and all the sudden POOF we’re in an El Nino. The winds over Florida aloft are stronger than we were expecting, and the storms as a result are curving into the northern Atlantic.”

Noah says, there’s still a lot scientists don’t understand about how the ocean interacts with the atmosphere. All this year high level winds have ripped apart tropical waves, and pushed storms to the north away from the United States.