The 2007 Hurricane Season is just around the corner. But state emergency officials don’t want residents to worry about how many storms may hit.

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say 2007 could be another busy hurricane season. They predict 13-to-17 named storms with seven to ten of those becoming hurricanes. And they forecast three to five of those could become major hurricanes. But spokesman for the Florida Division of Emergency Management Mike Stone says even with all these numbers and the numerous other storm predictions being made, people should only prepare and worry about one storm at time.

“What we want Florida residents to understand is that they need to be prepared for the next storm. You hear a lot about historical activity, they put a lot of weight on the numbers. Well I’d like to remind folks that back in 92 there was a storm called Andrew that didn’t crop up until late August.”

Stone says people need to come up with a plan now for any oncoming storm. And people can take advantage of the upcoming sales tax holiday on hurricane supplies. The holiday runs from June first through the 12th.

More than 3000 people are in Ft. Lauderdale this week for the 21st Annual Governor’s Hurricane Conference.

In addition to Emergency Managers and others from Florida, there are also attendees from Europe, South America and the Caribbean. Charlotte County’s Emergency Manager Wayne Sallade says that’s because Florida has learned its lessons well and become a leader in dealing with hurricanes and their aftermath.

“Hurricane Andrew was Florida’s Katrina. It was an absolute failure at all levels of government, failure to respond quickly, failure to respond efficiently and yet Florida has taken that to heart and has developed the finest disaster response system in the world and everybody acknowledges that.”

The conference kicked off with a speech from Governor Charlie Crist – and wraps up on Friday with a briefing by Hurricane Forecaster William Gray. What’s predicted to be an active season begins June 1st.

Famous hurricane prognosticator William Gray has downgraded his forecast for the current hurricane season…again. His new report – the second revision since the season began in June – predicts fewer than average storms, with just 6 hurricanes among 11 named tropical systems. There’ve been 5 hurricanes so far this year. Forecasters agree an unexpected El Nino weather pattern is responsible for the slowdown. National Weather Service meteorologist - Daniel Noah – says Gray makes more predictions than anyone else…

“He does the most of them. We don’t release ours until the first week of hurricane season, and then we only update it once. But the people that use Dr. Gray’s forecast are wide and varied and I’m sure there are some of them out there that want them that often.”

Noah says as soon as this season ends, Gray will immediately begin making predictions for 2007. And despite Gray’s reduced hurricane forecast, Noah says there are still two months left in THIS season.

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Noted storm predictor William Gray is calling for a slow finish to this year’s relatively quiet hurricane season. It’s the second time William Gray has reduced his forecast since the season began June 1st. He’s now predicting a total of 6 hurricanes, and 11 named storms. And with only 2 months left in the season – there have already been 5 hurricanes. Ruskin-based National Weather Service meteorologist Daniel Noah says the weather pattern called El Nino arrived unexpectedly this year, and that’s the reason for the slowdown.

“El Nino developed very fast – we were in a La Nina, and all the sudden POOF we’re in an El Nino. The winds over Florida aloft are stronger than we were expecting, and the storms as a result are curving into the northern Atlantic.”

Noah says, there’s still a lot scientists don’t understand about how the ocean interacts with the atmosphere. All this year high level winds have ripped apart tropical waves, and pushed storms to the north away from the United States.

Tropical Storm Chris has apparently lost its punch and continues to weaken in the Eastern Caribbean. The storm isn’t expected to reach hurricane status and will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression soon. Forecasters had thought the storm would reach Florida by this weekend as a hurricane. But now they say that’s not the case. National Hurricane Center forecaster Jaime Rhome says it’s not easy to calculate a storm’s intensity or path.

“Some storms seem to be just very, very resilient for whatever reason. You could impart strong shear across a storm and it just wouldn’t respond. Others you could just put a little bit of shear across it and it falls apart. So it’s a complicated interplay between the storm itself and the environment in which it’s embedded in.”

Rhome says forecasters have gotten better at predicting a storm’s likely path. But the intensity is much harder to zero in on.
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Forecasters say Tropical Storm Chris is no longer a threat to turn in to a hurricane and it will likely continue to weaken. The system is more than a thousand miles from the United States and meteorologists say it’s no easy task to predict a storm’s track or intensity.

Chris has vexed meteorologists with its slow track and yo-yo intensity over the past few days. The National Hurricane Center’s Jaime Rhome says predicting a storm’s strength is the most difficult aspect of forecasting. He says plotting the track is easier but still difficult. Rhome says as hurricane season continues, people might see rapidly changing forecasts.

“We want to be upfront with the public. We want the public to know that we’re not perfect. We don’t want to claim to be perfect and we want them to know that there’s still a lot of mysteries in hurricanes that science has yet to discover.”

Rhome says every storm responds differently to atmospheric conditions like wind shear, air currents and cold fronts. He says forecasters have to walk a tightrope by not downplaying a storm or crying wolf.

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