The warm winter has resulted in warmer-than-average temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico this spring. Last year, on April 5 the water temperature off Sanibel Island was in the mid 70s. This year, it’s 82 degrees.

Warm water is known to fuel hurricanes. But, National Hurricane Center Forecaster Todd Kimberlain said conditions that produce tropical storms occur over a much broader area.

“There isn’t a very strong relationship between the warmth of the winter and the side effects of that say in the Gulf of Mexico and overall hurricane activity,” he said. “And, the reason for that is that there are factors on the large scale that tend to govern hurricane activity a lot more such as El Nino and the water temperatures overall in the Atlantic basin.”

This year, water temperatures in the Atlantic Basin are cooler than usual – giving rise to some early season forecasts of below average tropical storm activity. The National Hurricane Center releases its forecast May 24.