Famous hurricane prognosticator William Gray has downgraded his forecast for the current hurricane season…again. His new report – the second revision since the season began in June – predicts fewer than average storms, with just 6 hurricanes among 11 named tropical systems. There’ve been 5 hurricanes so far this year. Forecasters agree an unexpected El Nino weather pattern is responsible for the slowdown. National Weather Service meteorologist - Daniel Noah – says Gray makes more predictions than anyone else…
“He does the most of them. We don’t release ours until the first week of hurricane season, and then we only update it once. But the people that use Dr. Gray’s forecast are wide and varied and I’m sure there are some of them out there that want them that often.”
Noah says as soon as this season ends, Gray will immediately begin making predictions for 2007. And despite Gray’s reduced hurricane forecast, Noah says there are still two months left in THIS season.
Noted storm predictor William Gray is calling for a slow finish to this year’s relatively quiet hurricane season. It’s the second time William Gray has reduced his forecast since the season began June 1st. He’s now predicting a total of 6 hurricanes, and 11 named storms. And with only 2 months left in the season – there have already been 5 hurricanes. Ruskin-based National Weather Service meteorologist Daniel Noah says the weather pattern called El Nino arrived unexpectedly this year, and that’s the reason for the slowdown.
“El Nino developed very fast – we were in a La Nina, and all the sudden POOF we’re in an El Nino. The winds over Florida aloft are stronger than we were expecting, and the storms as a result are curving into the northern Atlantic.”
Noah says, there’s still a lot scientists don’t understand about how the ocean interacts with the atmosphere. All this year high level winds have ripped apart tropical waves, and pushed storms to the north away from the United States.
Wednesday, 04 October 2006 01:00
Hurricane ForecastsWritten by WGCU Newsroom