When the National Hurricane Center predicts a hurricane, many forget that its winds can spread out for many miles in all directions. To overcome the public’s obsession with the skinny black forecast line, the center is adding a new graphic.
The skinny black line and the cone of uncertainty will remain but a new graph is being added. Hurricane Specialist Richard Knabb says it will list the exact probability of where tropical storm or hurricane force winds will threaten a specific area within a 24 hour period. Folks can then plan accordingly.
“If I were to decide to put up my shutters first I’d look at that first probability and if its high enough for me to be concerned then I’d look at next probability number which says when will the tropical force winds be here because I don’t want to handle those shutters if those winds are here.”
Local weather forecasters, emergency managers and the public will have access to the full-color graphic which will be updated along with the forecast. The information will be posted on the front page of the National Hurricane Center’s website.
Planning how to respond to an approaching Hurricane could be easier this year. The National Hurricane Center has added a new graphic to its forecast information – which lets residents know what the chances are for tropical storm or hurricane force winds where they live – and when to expect them. Hurricane Specialist Richard Knabb (nab) says its an important new tool.
“So if you have an approaching storm you see the exact track, you see the cone of uncertainty but you’ll also see this new wind speed information project and get a piece of information from that product that specifically applies to your location that tells you what the chance are those winds occurring and when those winds are most likely to start.”
Knabb says the information will allow home and business owners to determine whether or when they need to put up shutters or take other action. He says the graphic will also be useful to local weather forecasters and emergency officials. The information is available to the public at the NHC website, www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Richard knabb – hurricane specialist
:33 we will continue to put out our watch warning graphic with track forecast on it – along the black line – that’s the exact track forecast – surrounded by this cone of uncertainty which represents the average track error – that’s one graphic we have that helps convey uncertainty in track forecast
:54 this year for 2006 we have brand new operational product coming on law – these are wind speed probabilities – that’s a second product from the cone graphic
1:06 they are new text and graphic products. and they’re going to be updated with every advisory for the storm.
1:19 last year you may have seen our strike probability product – and that’s going away and being replaced by this wind speed probability product and . What this product does is for any location on the map it will tell what the chances are of tropical storm or hurricane force winds – both in terms of what are the chances its going to occur from this event at all – and the timing, when are they most likely to start. so this helps to answer two basic questions for anyone out there – one is what are the chances that this event is going to happen to me whether that be tropical storm winds or hurricane force winds – is it going to happen to me from the particular storm and that answers the question – do I need to prepare is this something I need to get my shutters up for –
2:10 second question it is answers is when is event most likely to start – so it answers the question how much longer do you have to prepare
2:20 so if you have an approaching storm you see the exact track, you see the cone of uncertainty but you’ll also see this new wind speed information project and get a piece of information from that product that specifically applies to your location that tells you what the chance are those winds occurring and when those winds are most likely to start………
categories (1,2,3,4) to difficult to forecast at any particular location –
3:42 for years we’ve been forecasting what the extent of hurricane force winds will be surrounding the system and now we’re putting up probabalities for that – but we can’t put a probability or number on what the chances are for cat 2,3 at any one specific location. but in our forecast product we will still talk about what the chances are that the system overall could be stronger than what we’re forecasting.
at least cat 1………..
4:48 specific preperations that people make will vary from location to location – when we’re putting out the forecast we can’t give out that kind of recommendation because they have to decide because we don’t know speicifics – each person has to think through how long they need to make their preparations and also pay attention to advice from local officials – but also look
5:26 if I were to decide to put up my shutters first I’d look at that first probability and if its high enough for me to be concerned then I’d look at next probability number which says when will the tropical force winds be here because I don’t want to handle those shutters if those winds are here –
6:21 we hope they do a couple things. help people to better understand the uncertainty in the forecast – because the cone of uncertainty just gives you the uncertainty in the track forecast at the center of the storm – this new product will give you the chances of certain weather conditions at your location – and so its more information about the uncertainty in the forecast.
6:42 and also we’re hoping people will be able to use it for the purposes you were just getting into – that is to understand what the chances are that something’s going to happen and how much longer they have to prepare for that so that people have more information upon which to make their own decisions about what prep to make
7:05 emergency managers and officials in everyones area will be looking at these products and they’ll be using it to help make recommnendations for the public in the area in which they live.
7:10 it will be updated with every new forecast –
Wednesday, 24 May 2006 01:00